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Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility

Raman Uppal, Bernard Dumas () and Alexander Kurshev

No 6455, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Our objective is to identify the trading strategy that would allow an investor to take advantage of ''excessive'' stock price volatility and ?sentiment? fluctuations. We construct a general-equilibrium model of sentiment. In it, there are two classes of agents and stock prices are excessively volatile because one class is overconfident about a public signal. As a result, this class of overconfident agents changes its expectations too often, sometimes being excessively optimistic, sometimes being excessively pessimistic. We determine and analyze the trading strategy of the rational investors who are not overconfident about the signal. We find that, because overconfident traders introduce an additional source of risk, rational investors are deterred by their presence and reduce the proportion of wealth invested into equity except when they are extremely optimistic about future growth. Moreover, their optimal portfolio strategy is based not just on a current price divergence but also on their expectation of future sentiment behaviour and a prediction concerning the speed of convergence of prices. Thus, the portfolio strategy includes a protection in case there is a deviation from that prediction. We find that long maturity bonds are an essential accompaniment of equity investment, as they serve to hedge this ''sentiment risk.''

Keywords: Bayesian behaviour; Excess volatility; Financial-market equilibrium; Risk premia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 D58 D84 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mst
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Journal Article: Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility (2007) Downloads
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