Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

Antonio Ciccone

No 7081, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.

Keywords: Mean reversion; Rainfall; Transitory shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O0 P0 Q0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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