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The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

Michael Artis and Toshihiro Okubo ()

No 7152, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the “UK idiosyncrasy” they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.

Keywords: Euro-sympathy; Hodrick-Prescott filter; income convergence; intranational business cycle; regional business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E41 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2009-02
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Working Paper: The UK Intranational Trade Cycle (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: The UK intranational trade cycle (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: The UK Intranational Trade Cycle (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: The UK Intranational Trade Cycle (2008) Downloads
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