Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy
Olivier Darné and
Laurent Ferrara ()
No 7376, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimitate the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: First, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production index. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, in order to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle.
Keywords: Acceleration cycle; Business surveys; Dating chronology; Euro area; Turning point indicator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
Journal Article: Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy (2011)
Working Paper: Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7376
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... ers/dp.php?dpno=7376
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().