Imperfect information and the business cycle

Harris Dellas (), Frank Smets and Fabrice Collard

No 7643, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the New Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the central bank. A third on persistent misperceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK{DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation; Imperfect information; New keynesian model; Signal extraction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Imperfect information and the business cycle (2009)
Working Paper: Imperfect Information and the Business Cycle (2009)
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