A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle

Paolo Vitale, Dagfinn Rime and Francis Breedon

No 7791, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Using a market microstructure analytical framework we decompose the FX forward discount bias into elements due to time-varying risk premia (related to EBS order flow) and forecast errors derived using the Reuters survey of FX market participants. We find that both elements are significant contributors to the forward bias with risk premia being particularly important in currency pairs traditionally associated with carry trade activity. Part of order flow is driven by carry trade, and from our decomposition the carry trade driven risk premia account for about 50% of the forward bias.

Keywords: Carry trade; Forward discount puzzle; Fx microstructure; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D82 G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-04
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP7791 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7791

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP7791
orders@cepr.org

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (repec@cepr.org).