Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?

Andrew Rose and Christoph Moser ()

No 8993, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The Doha multilateral round of trade negotiations sponsored by the WTO has been dragging on for over a decade, with no end in sight. In this short paper we assess empirically what determines the duration of trade negotiations, focusing on the span between the start of trade talks and their conclusion. We use data from 88 regional trade agreements between 1988 and 2009, and a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. Four factors are robust determinants of the length of RTA negotiations. Negotiations are more protracted when there are more countries at the negotiation table, and when the countries are not from the same region. Negotiations between more open and richer countries are also finished more quickly.

Keywords: Cox; Data; Duration; Empirical; Gatt; Income; Regional; Survival; Wto (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F51 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Related works:
Chapter: Why do trade negotiations take so long? (2012)
Journal Article: Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long? (2012)
Working Paper: Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long? (2012)
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