The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by-date

Roger Farmer

No 9580, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment rate returns to its so called 'natural rate?. That assumption is called the Natural Rate Hypothesis (NRH). This paper reviews a body of work, published over the last decade, which is critical of the NRH. I argue that the NRH does not hold in the data and I provide an alternative paradigm that explains why it does not hold. I replace the NRH with the assumption that the animal spirits of investors are a fundamental of the economy and I show how to operationalize that idea by constructing an empirical model that outperforms the new-Keynesian Phillips curve. I model animal spirits with a new fundamental that I call the belief function.

Keywords: inflation; Natural rate hypothesis; Unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 E24 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Journal Article: The Natural Rate Hypothesis: an idea past its sell-by date (2013)
Working Paper: The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by date (2013)
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