Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes

Alexis Roussel (), Romain Biard (), Marc Deschamps and Mostapha Diss
Additional contact information
Alexis Roussel: Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France
Romain Biard: Université de Franche-Comté, LMB UMR 6623, F-25000 Besançon, France
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Philippe Solal

No 2023-04, Working Papers from CRESE

Abstract: The management and allocation of health resources, in particular equipment such as ventilators, has been the object of significant interest by a health community that is concerned to avoid new shortages. In this article, we develop a Markov chain based model considering random arrivals and discharges of patients in an intensive care unit requiring ventilator support. We provide a methodology in order to compute the ex- act probability distribution of the time-shortage, which is the moment where no more ventilators are available. We propose two applications of this model: a preventive traffic signal and a tool to evaluate purchasing decisions. A calibration of parameters based on real empirical data from a French hospital is carried out in order to test the operational use of the model.

Keywords: Intensive care unit; ventilator shortage; Markov process; traffic signal; purchasing management. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C0 C22 C44 I10 I19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2023-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-env and nep-tre
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Working Paper: Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes (2023)
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