Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes

Romain Biard (), Marc Deschamps, Mostapha Diss and Alexis Roussel ()
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Romain Biard: LMB - Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Besançon (UMR 6623) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]
Alexis Roussel: CRESE - Centre de REcherches sur les Stratégies Economiques (UR 3190) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]

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Abstract: The management and allocation of health resources, in particular equipment such as ventilators, has been the object of significant interest by a health community that is concerned to avoid new shortages. In this article, we develop a Markov chain based model considering random arrivals and discharges of patients in an intensive care unit requiring ventilator support. We provide a methodology in order to compute the exact probability distribution of the time-shortage, which is the moment where no more ventilators are available. We propose two applications of this model: a preventive traffic signal and a tool to evaluate purchasing decisions. A calibration of parameters based on real empirical data from a French hospital is carried out in order to test the operational use of the model.

Keywords: Intensive care unit; ventilator shortage; Markov process; traffic signal; purchasing management. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-09
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04222226v1
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Working Paper: Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes (2023)
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