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On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns

Andrea Brasili (), Paolo Epifani () and Rodolfo Helg ()
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Andrea Brasili: Banca Intesa, Italy

No 115, KITeS Working Papers from KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Abstract: In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former have in fact a highly persistent trade pattern, whereas the latter show a rapidly changing trade specialisation. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self-reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.

Keywords: Trade patterns; Comparative advantage; Stochastic kernels (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-01, Revised 2000-07
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Related works:
Working Paper: On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns (2000) Downloads
Working Paper: On the dynamics of trade patterns (1999) Downloads
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