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Forced Migration and Mortality

Thomas Bauer (), Matthias Giesecke and Laura M. Janisch
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Laura M. Janisch: RWI, RGSEcon and Ruhr-University Bochum

No 1709, CReAM Discussion Paper Series from Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London

Abstract: We examine the long-run effects of forced migration from Eastern Europe into post-war Germany. Existing evidence suggests that displaced individuals are worse off economically, facing a considerably lower income and a higher unemployment risk than comparable natives even twenty years after being expelled. We extend this literature by investigating the relative performance of forced migrants across the entire life cycle. Using social security records that document the exact date of death and a proxy for pre-retirement lifetime earnings, we estimate a signifi cantly and considerably higher mortality risk among forced migrants compared to native West-Germans. The adverse displacement effect persists throughout the earnings distribution except for the top quintile. Although forced migrants are generally worse off regarding mortality outcomes, those with successful labor market histories seem to overcome the long-lasting negative consequences of flight and expulsion.

Keywords: Forced Migration; Di erential Mortality; Lifetime Earnings; Economic History (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I12 J61 O15 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-hea, nep-lab and nep-mig
Date: 2017-10
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Working Paper: Forced Migration and Mortality (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Forced migration and mortality (2017) Downloads
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