Effects of Immigrants on Non-host Regions: Evidence from the Syrian Refugees in Turkey

Ahmet Gulek

No 25109, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin)

Abstract: I study how local immigration shocks impact labor markets and firms across the economy through production networks. Using Turkey's Syrian refugee crisis and firm-level trade network data, I show that firms buying from host regions demand more labor, while those selling to host regions increase sales. These spillovers depend critically on network centrality: a 1% labor supply increase in Istanbul decreases local real wages by 0.56% while increasing non-host wages by 0.38%. For non-central regions, identical shocks reduce local wages by 1% with negligible spillovers. Network position thus determines whether immigration only lowers local wages or also generates economy-wide gains.

Keywords: Immigration; trade; production network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F16 F22 J15 J23 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
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