When Offshoring Threatens Jobs: Lifelong Education and Occupation Choice

Daisuke Adachi and Lars Skipper

No 25114, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin)

Abstract: Manufacturing job offshoring has displaced low-skilled workers lacking transition skills. Using Danish adult education and employer-employee data, we study how vocational training influences occupational choice and mitigates labor market shocks. Manufacturing workers trained in business services (BS) show a higher probability of transitioning to BS occupations via dynamic difference-in-difference analysis. We then propose and estimate a life-cycle model of training and occupation. Our model reveals that program take-up elasticity is lower than occupation choice elasticity, indicating insensitivity to program monetary value. Counterfactual wage subsidies tied to BS programs support manufacturing-to-BS transitions and reduce labor force exits, especially among older workers.

Keywords: Adult vocational education; life-cycle discrete choice model; labor market resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I21 J24 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
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Working Paper: When Offshoring Threatens Jobs: Lifelong Education and Occupation Choice (2025)
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