How Initial Accommodation Shapes Refugee Integration: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Ukrainian Displacement Crisis in Denmark

Mette Foged, Jens Hainmueller, Mikkel Stahlschmidt and Edith Zink

No 25154, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin)

Abstract: Sudden displacement crises strain reception systems and require rapid expansion of refugee accommodation beyond conventional channels. We study Denmark's 2022 reception of Ukrainian refugees and provide the first population-level analysis of two scalable strategies that expanded capacity outside standard public refugee housing: public "pop-up" shelters and private hosting in residents' homes. Using linked administrative registers covering the full arriving population, combined with a representative refugee survey, we classify each refugee's initial accommodation from address and co-residence records and track outcomes for 18 months. The majority of arrivals was absorbed in pop-up shelters (37%) and private hosting (43%). Both proved durable, with mean stays of about seven months and no indication that private hosting was less stable. Exploiting quasi-random assignment generated by within-municipality capacity and time constraints, we estimate effects of accommodation type while conditioning on locality, arrival timing, and sociodemographics. Relative to conventional public housing, private hosting led to higher early employment, higher earnings, persistently lower public-transfer receipt, and improved psychological well-being. Pop-up housing performed at least as well on labor-market outcomes and showed modest gains in social integration. By holding locality constant, we show that how refugees are housed within municipalities has an independent, first-order effect on integration-distinct from the well-studied importance of where they are placed. These findings highlight the potential for civic-led accommodation to complement public systems during displacement shocks and shape long-term refugee trajectories.

Keywords: Refugees; integration; public policy; housing provision (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J15 J61 J68 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
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