State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s

Lorenzo Cappellari, Richard Dorsett and Getinet Haile

No ieil0049, DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro from Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE)

Abstract: This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged between 50 and the state pension age. We begin by examining the issue of duration dependence, using standard duration models. We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence. This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.

Keywords: Labour market participation; Transitions; Over-50s. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J14 J21 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2007-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.unicatt.it/Istituti/EconomiaImpresaLavoro/Quaderni/ieil0049.pdf First version, 2007 (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Server closed connection without sending any data back (http://www.unicatt.it/Istituti/EconomiaImpresaLavoro/Quaderni/ieil0049.pdf [302 Redirect]--> https://www.unicatt.it/home-pagina-non-trovata [302 Found]--> http://www.unicatt.it/404.html)

Related works:
Working Paper: State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s (2007)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctc:serie4:ieil0049

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro from Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Lorenzo Cappellari ().