The long memory of newspapers' subscriptions: between the short-run and persistence response

Jose Vidal-Sanz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Mercedes Esteban-Bravo ()

DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa

Abstract: The mainstream of marketing time series analysis has shifted from classical short-range dependence (ARMA, transfer functions and VAR models). However, in cases where purchase decisions entail some commitment (e.g., a subscription selling periodic use of a product or service), sales response entails a long-term effect is not permanent. Long-memory assumes that shocks to a time series have neither a persistent nor a short-run transitory effect, but that they last for a long time and decay slowly with time. Many marketing policies face a short-memory response at the individual customer level but display a considerable degree of persistence at the aggregate level. The aggregation of short-run individual decisions made by heterogeneous customers can show a long-memory pattern. In today's highly competitive newspaper industry, loyal, ongoing customers are a key to obtain stable and long-term profits. Often newspapers obtain a loyal customer base through subscriptions. This paper proposes a long-memory model to study the long-term sales response dynamics in subscription markets. The model accounts for the heterogeneity of the individual responses and distinguishes between both trend and long-memory components pattern of subscriptions. This model permits more accurate predictions of subscription sales than those obtained using persistence models

Keywords: Long-memory; Persistence; Time; Series; Subscription; markets; Newspapers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 M3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cul and nep-mkt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams ... a92bf2930f86/content (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb076411

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ana Poveda ().