Nonparametric Predictive Regression

Ioannis Kasparis, Elena Andreou and Peter Phillips
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Ioannis Kasparis: Dept. of Economics, University of Cyprus
Elena Andreou: Dept. of Economics, University of Cyprus

No 1878, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and are obtained by kernel regression. The limit distribution of these predictive tests holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit root processes. In this sense the proposed tests provide a unifying framework for predictive inference, allowing for possibly nonlinear relationships of unknown form, and offering robustness to integration order and functional form. Under the null of no predictability the limit distributions of the tests involve functionals of independent chi^2 variates. The tests are consistent and divergence rates are faster when the predictor is stationary. Asymptotic theory and simulations show that the proposed tests are more powerful than existing parametric predictability tests when deviations from unity are large or the predictive regression is nonlinear. Some empirical illustrations to monthly SP500 stock returns data are provided.

Keywords: Functional regression; Nonparametric predictability test; Nonparametric regression; Stock returns; Predictive regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2012-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Journal of Econometrics (April 2015), 185(2): 468-494

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Related works:
Journal Article: Nonparametric predictive regression (2015)
Working Paper: Nonparametric Predictive Regression (2013)
Working Paper: Nonparametric Predictive Regression (2012)
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