New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models

Igor Kheifets and Carlos Velasco

No 1924R, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: This paper proposes new specification tests for conditional models with discrete responses, which are key to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, to obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and to get appropriate predictions of the probability of future events. In particular, we test the static and dynamic ordered choice model specifications and can cover infinite support distributions for e.g. count data. The traditional approach for specification testing of discrete response models is based on probability integral transforms of a jittered discrete data which leads to continuous uniform iid series under the true conditional distribution. Then, standard specification testing techniques for continuous variables could be applied to the transformed series, but the extra randomness from jitters affects the power properties of these methods. We investigate in this paper an alternative transformation based only on original discrete data that avoids any randomization. We analyze the asymptotic properties of goodness-of- t tests based on this new transformation and explore the properties in finite samples of a bootstrap algorithm to approximate the critical values of test statistics which are model and parameter dependent. We show analytically and in simulations that our approach dominates the methods based on randomization in terms of power. We apply the new tests to models of the monetary policy conducted by the Federal Reserve.

Keywords: Specification tests; Count data; Dynamic discrete choice models; Conditional probability integral transform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C22 C52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2017-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: New goodness-of-fit diagnostics for conditional discrete response models (2017)
Working Paper: New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models (2013)
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