Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity" Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

William Nordhaus

No 2021, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: What are the prospects for long-run economic growth", the present study looks at a more recently launched hypothesis, which I label Singularity. The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace of improvements cascade through the economy. The paper develops a growth model that features Singularity and presents several tests of whether we are rapidly approaching Singularity. The key question for Singularity is the substitutability between information and conventional inputs. The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.

Keywords: Superintelligence; Artificial intelligence; Economic growth; Computers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O31 O4 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2015-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (66)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth (2021)
Working Paper: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth (2015)
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