Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017

William Nordhaus and Andrew Moffat
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Andrew Moffat: U.S. Department of State

No 2096, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: The present study has two objectives. The first is a review of studies that estimate the global economic impacts of climate change using a systematic research synthesis (SRS). In this review, we attempt to replicate the impact estimates provided by Tol (2009, 2014) and find a large number of errors and estimates that could not be replicated. The study provides revised estimates for a total of 36 usable estimates from 27 studies. A second part of the study performs a statistical analysis. While the different specifications provide alternative estimates of the damage function, there were no large discrepancies among specifications. The preferred regression is the median, quadratic, weighted regression. The data here omit several important potential damages, which we estimate to add 25% to the quantified damages. With this addition, the estimated impact is -2.04 (+ 2.21) % of income at 3 �C warming and -8.06 (+ 2.43) % of income at 6 �C warming. We also considered the likelihood of thresholds or sharp convexities in the damage function and found no evidence from the damage estimates of a sharp discontinuity or high convexity.

Keywords: Climate change; Damages; Impacts; Survey of impacts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C8 Q5 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2017-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017 (2018)
Working Paper: Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017 (2017)
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