Bubble Mitigation Policies: Counterfactual Analysis and Treatment Effect Inference

Ye Chen, Peter Phillips and Shuping Shi
Additional contact information
Ye Chen: Capital University of Economics and Business
Peter Phillips: Yale University, University of Auckland, Singapore Management University
Shuping Shi: Macquarie University

No 2433, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: To safeguard economic and financial stability policymakers regularly take actions designed to increase resilience to systemic risks and curb speculative market behavior. To assess the effectiveness of such mitigation policies, we introduce a counterfactual approach tailored to accommodate the mildly explosive dynamics that occur during speculative bubbles. We derive asymptotics of the estimated treatment effect under a common factor structure that allows for explosive, I(1), and stationary factors, thereby having applicability to a wide range of prevailing economic conditions. An inferential procedure is proposed for the policy treatment effect that has asymptotic validity and demonstrates satisfactory finite sample performance. An empirical analysis examines the monetary policy of interest rate hikes implemented by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, beginning in October 2021.This policy exerted a statistically significant cooling effect on all regional housing markets in New Zealand. Our findings show that this policy led to 20%-33% reductions in house prices in five out of six regions seven months after the enactment of the interest rate hike.

Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2025-03-17
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