The finance researcher's favorite – President Donald Trump and the stock market

Elias-Noah Batt, Jan Munkow and Dirk Schiereck

Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) from Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL)

Abstract: No other politician has stood in the spotlight of financial analyses as frequently as U.S. President Donald Trump. Such attention appears appropriate only if the individual succeeds in consistently influencing the pricing of financial markets. This study systematically reviews and synthesizes the empirical findings regarding the stock market effects of Donald Trump. Drawing on a Web of Science search and applying inclusion criteria, 55 peer-reviewed studies published between 2016 and 2025 are identified and analyzed along four thematic dimensions: overall market and index reactions, sectoral differences, political communication, and international spillovers. The synthesis shows that Trump's elections trigger positive short-term index returns alongside pronounced spikes in implied volatility. At the sectoral level, financials, industrials, and growth-sensitive industries emerge as consistent winners, whereas health care and defensive sectors decline. Brown assets temporarily benefit from anticipated deregulation, while green assets lose value in the short run, though firms with strong climate commitments and long-run investor horizons earn positive returns. President Trump's tweets generate short-lived yet robust effects on trading volume and volatility, while return responses vary with sentiment, data frequency, and tweet topic, particularly for trade and monetary-policy-related statements.

Date: 2026-10
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Published in International Review of Economics & Finance (2026-10)

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