Data and Model Cross-Validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey

Michal Myck and Mateusz Najsztub

No 1368, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: We conduct detailed analysis of the Polish Household Budget Survey data for the years 2006-2011 with the focus on its representativeness from the point of view of microsimulation analysis. We find important discrepancies between the data weighted with baseline grossing-up weights and official statistics from other sources. A number of re-weighting exercises is examined from the point of view of the accuracy of microsimulation results and we show that using a combination of demographic calibration targets with several economic status variables or tax identifiers from the microsimulation model substantially improves the correspondence of model results and administrative data. While demographic re-weighting is neutral from the point of view of income distribution, calibrating the grossing-up weights to adjust for economic status and tax identifiers significantly increases income inequality. We argue that although data reweighting can substantially improve the accuracy of microsimulation it should be used with caution.

Keywords: microsimulation; re-weighting; household data analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 p.
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pbe and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.441305.de/dp1368.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1368

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bibliothek ().