Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

Benoît Chèze (), Julien Chevallier and Pascal Gastineau

No 2012-35, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. "scenario of type I") recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2°C.

Keywords: Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 L93 Q47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env, nep-for and nep-tre
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Working Paper: Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term ? (2013)
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