Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises

Atsushi Inoue and Barbara Rossi

No 05-02, Working Papers from Duke University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper examines the major interest groups in the debate over allowing the wholesale re-importation of prescription drugs through the Pharmaceutical Market Access Act. By making use of the logit model, we see the effects that each of these groups has had on the voting behavior of the 108 th Congress on the bill. We find evidence suggesting that Representatives are maximizing their electoral prospects: Contributions from pharmaceutical manufacturers and HMOs significantly influence the probability of voting for the Bill. Similarly, Representatives are sensitive to their constituencyís interest: employment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the presence of senior citizens are also taken into account. However, the decision was by and large a partisan one: Party affiliation was the most important factor in passing the Bill.

Keywords: currency crises; forecasting; leading indicators; diffusion index; exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F30 F37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2005
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin, nep-ifn and nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises (2008)
Journal Article: Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:duk:dukeec:05-02

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