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ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation

Bill Russell ()

No 277, Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics from Economic Studies, University of Dundee

Abstract: United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

Keywords: Philips curve; ARCH; structural breaks; inflation; markup (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2013-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Related works:
Journal Article: ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation (2013) Downloads
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