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Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

Bill Russell ()

No 2013-115, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

Keywords: Philips curve; ARCH; structural breaks; inflation; markup (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ger, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Journal Article: ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation (2013) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:sirdps:540

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