Flood Voting

Yit Wey Liew () and Muhammad Rahman
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Yit Wey Liew: Sunway University

No 2026_13, Department of Economics Working Papers from Durham University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper examines how a major natural disaster reshapes political preferences using the 1998 Bangladesh flood. Combining district-level flood exposure with individual responses from the 1996 and 2002 World Values Survey, we find that flood exposure increases rejection of both dominant parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, while making the Jatiya Party, the major third political force, rela tively more attractive. The political response is strongest in the most severely flooded areas and among economically disadvantaged respondents, while greater government relief is associated with a smaller increase in rejection of the two dominant parties. These results suggest that political dissatisfaction following a disaster need not simply shift support from the government to its main rival. Instead, major shocks can weaken both dominant parties and create space for an alternative political force, a pattern we term "flood voting".

Keywords: flood voting; voting behaviour; party preferences; natural disasters; political accountability; Dominant Parties; third parties (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-08
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