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Robust Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Weak Trends, with an Application to the Human Origin of Global Warming

Guillaume Chevillon ()

No WP1320, ESSEC Working Papers from ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School

Abstract: Standard tests for the rank of cointegration of a vector autoregressive process present distributions that are affected by the presence of deterministic trends. We consider the recent approach of Demetrescu et al. (2009) who recommend testing a composite null. We assess this methodology in the presence of trends (linear or broken) whose magnitude is small enough not to be detectable at conventional significance levels. We model them using local asymptotics and derive the properties of the test statistics. We show that whether the trend is orthogonal to the cointegrating vector has a major impact on the distributions but that the test combination approach remains valid. We apply of the methodology to the study of cointegration properties between global temperatures and the radiative forcing of human gas emissions. We find new evidence of Granger Causality.

Keywords: Cointegration; Deterministic trend; Likelihood ratio; Local trends; Global Warming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2013-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-ets
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Related works:
Journal Article: Robust cointegration testing in the presence of weak trends, with an application to the human origin of global warming (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Robust Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Weak Trends, with an Application to the Human Origin of Global Warming (2013) Downloads
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