Business Cycles in the euro Area
Domenico Giannone (),
Michele Lenza () and
Lucrezia Reichlin ()
No 2008_040, Working Papers ECARES from ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries’ business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP percapita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening.
Keywords: Euro area; International Business Cycle; European monetary union; European integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Chapter: Business Cycles in the Euro Area (2010)
Journal Article: Business cycles in the euro area (2009)
Working Paper: Business Cycles in the Euro Area (2009)
Working Paper: Business Cycles in the Euro Area (2008)
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