Details about Domenico Giannone

Homepage:	https://econ.washington.edu/people/domenico-giannone
Workplace:	Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), (more information at EDIRC) Department of Economics, University of Washington, (more information at EDIRC) Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Domenico Giannone.

Last updated 2025-07-15. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pgi49

---

Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2025

1. Debt-at-Risk
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund
2. Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2025)
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2025)

2024

3. Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020) View citations (5)
4. The Drivers of Post-Pandemic Inflation
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (7)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2024)
5. Tracking Reserve Ampleness in Real Time Using Reserve Demand Elasticity
   Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
6. When Are Central Bank Reserves Ample?
   Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2022

7. 800,000 Years of Climate Risk
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
8. Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (3)

2021

9. A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (5)
10. Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2024) (2024)
11. Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (70)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (28)
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (23)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2021) View citations (69) (2021)
12. Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2020) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (20) (2022)

2020

13. Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting macroeconomic risks, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2021) View citations (36) (2021)
14. Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article MULTIMODALITY IN MACROFINANCIAL DYNAMICS, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2021) View citations (23) (2021)
15. Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
16. Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
17. What Do Financial Conditions Tell Us about Risks to GDP Growth?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (5)

2019

18. Global Trends in Interest Rates
    2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (117)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (10)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (31)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2018) View citations (10)
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (78)
    See also Journal Article Global trends in interest rates, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2019) View citations (89) (2019)
    Chapter Global Trends in Interest Rates, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (31) (2018)
19. Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (22)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2019) View citations (21) (2019)
20. Monitoring Economic Conditions during a Government Shutdown
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2018

21. A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
22. A New Perspective on Low Interest Rates
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
23. A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
24. Changing Risk-Return Profiles
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
    Also in Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (2)
25. Common Factors of Commodity Prices
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2017) View citations (51)
    Working papers, Banque de France (2017) View citations (49)
    See also Journal Article Common factors of commodity prices, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2022) View citations (34) (2022)
26. Flighty liquidity
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
27. Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (104)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2017) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2018) View citations (1) (2018)
28. Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
29. Priors for the long run
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (13)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (12)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2017) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Priors for the Long Run, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals (2019) View citations (43) (2019)
30. Vulnerable Growth
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (42)
    Also in 2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2017) View citations (10)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2016) View citations (44)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Vulnerable Growth, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2019) View citations (136) (2019)

2017

31. Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (204)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2017) View citations (106)
    See also Journal Article Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2017) View citations (204) (2017)

2016

32. The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (6)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2015) View citations (1)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (20)
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2014) View citations (24)
    Working Papers CASMEF, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli (2014) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2017) View citations (29) (2017)

2015

33. Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
    Also in Discussion Papers, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) (2014) View citations (4)
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2014) View citations (4)
    Bank of England working papers, Bank of England (2014) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (16) (2016)
34. Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
    See also Chapter Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2016) View citations (17) (2016)

2014

35. Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (22)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (19)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2014) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (130) (2015)
36. Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
    CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy View citations (15)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2014) View citations (18)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2014) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2017) View citations (48) (2017)
37. The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of OMT Announcements
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (136)
    Also in CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy (2014) View citations (132)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2014) View citations (135)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (125)
    See also Journal Article The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2016) View citations (118) (2016)
38. Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2013) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2016) View citations (46) (2016)

2013

39. Now-casting and the real-time data flow
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (215)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2012) View citations (87)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (19)
    See also Chapter Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (177) (2013)

2012

40. A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
    Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL View citations (270)
    Also in Post-Print, HAL (2012) View citations (233)
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2008) View citations (48)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2006) View citations (102)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (121)
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2012) View citations (238)
    See also Journal Article A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2012) View citations (223) (2012)
41. Money, Credit, Monetary Policy and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (52)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (55)
42. Nowcasting with Daily Data
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (7)
43. Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2012) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Optimal combination of survey forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (55) (2015)
44. Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (106)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (86)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2012) View citations (93)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2012) View citations (85)
    See also Journal Article Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2015) View citations (531) (2015)
45. The ECB and the Interbank Market
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (106)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2012) View citations (100)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2012) View citations (98)
    See also Journal Article The ECB and the Interbank Market, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2012) View citations (100) (2012)

2011

46. A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (306)
    Also in Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL (2011) View citations (315)
    THEMA Working Papers, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise (2006) View citations (32)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (47)
    PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2011) View citations (287)
    See also Journal Article A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2011) View citations (337) (2011)
47. Market freedom and the global recession
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (75)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2010) View citations (42)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (45)
    See also Journal Article Market Freedom and the Global Recession, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2011) View citations (81) (2011)
48. Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (52)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2010) View citations (9)
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2010) View citations (9)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (18)

2010

49. An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (2)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (35)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2010) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2012) View citations (58) (2012)
50. Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2009) View citations (73)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (28)
    Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland (2009) View citations (47)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2013) View citations (267) (2013)
51. Nowcasting
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2010) View citations (2)
52. Prior Selection for Bayesian VARs
    2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
53. Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (68)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2010) View citations (63)
    See also Journal Article Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2014) View citations (95) (2014)

2009

54. Business Cycles in the Euro Area
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (60)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2008) View citations (55)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2009) View citations (44)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (63)
    See also Chapter Business Cycles in the Euro Area, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (85) (2010)
    Journal Article Business cycles in the euro area, Research Bulletin, European Central Bank (2009) View citations (42) (2009)
55. Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (42)
    Also in CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy (2009) View citations (43)
    See also Journal Article NOWCASTING EURO AREA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN REAL TIME: THE ROLE OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS, National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2009) View citations (41) (2009)
56. The Feldstein-Horioka Fact
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (29)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2004) View citations (12)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (16)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2008) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article The Feldstein-Horioka Fact, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2010) View citations (19) (2010)
    Chapter The Feldstein-Horioka Fact, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (19) (2010)

2008

57. Did the Euro imply more correlation of cycles?
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (13)
58. Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (123)
    Also in ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2008) View citations (113)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks, Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press (2008) View citations (109) (2008)
59. Large Bayesian VARs
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (70)
    Also in Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2008) View citations (82)
60. Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (517)
61. Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (62)
    Also in Center for Economic Research (RECent), University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi" (2007) View citations (23)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2007) View citations (70)
    See also Journal Article OPENING THE BLACK BOX: STRUCTURAL FACTOR MODELS WITH LARGE CROSS SECTIONS, Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press (2009) View citations (336) (2009)
62. Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth
    Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (50)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (62)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2008) View citations (53)
    See also Journal Article Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth, Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2011) View citations (104) (2011)
63. Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (45)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2008) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (5)

2007

64. (Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (4)
    Also in Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland (2006) View citations (20)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2006) View citations (63)
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (88)
65. A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (35)
    Also in Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (2006) View citations (15)
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2007) View citations (32)
    See also Journal Article A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2007) View citations (29) (2007)
66. Bayesian VARs with Large Panels
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (60)
    See also Journal Article Large Bayesian vector auto regressions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) View citations (898) (2010)
67. Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (38)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2006) View citations (50)
    Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland (2006) View citations (54)
    See also Journal Article Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2012) View citations (54) (2012)
68. Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006, Money Macro and Finance Research Group View citations (17)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2006) View citations (23)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (53)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (87)
    See also Journal Article Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (776) (2008)

2006

69. Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from Past Observations?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (121)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2006) View citations (120)
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2006) View citations (124)
    See also Journal Article Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?, Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press (2006) View citations (121) (2006)
70. Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (58)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2006) View citations (48)
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2006) View citations (78)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (386) (2008)
71. Panel discussion on Convergence or divergence in Europe?
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles
72. Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (146)
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (29)
73. VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (64)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2002) View citations (8)
    Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University (2004) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (69) (2006)

2005

74. Monetary Policy in Real Time
    Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University View citations (133)
    Also in ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (135)
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2005) View citations (101)
    See also Chapter Monetary Policy in Real Time, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (163) (2005)

2004

75. Euro area and US recessions: 1970-2003
    ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (16)

2002

76. Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (84)

Journal Articles

2025

1. A Large Bayesian VAR of the U.S. Economy
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2025, 21, (2), 351-409 View citations (1)

2024

2. Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, 40, (2), 661-686
   See also Working Paper Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model, International Finance Discussion Papers (2021) View citations (3) (2021)

2022

3. Common factors of commodity prices
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (3), 461-476 View citations (34)
   Also in Research Bulletin, 2018, 51 (2018) View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Common Factors of Commodity Prices, CEPR Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (9) (2018)
4. Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions
   Journal of Econometrics, 2022, 231, (2), 500-519 View citations (20)
   See also Working Paper Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions, CEPR Discussion Papers (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2021

5. Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity
   Econometrica, 2021, 89, (5), 2409-2437 View citations (69)
   See also Working Paper Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity, Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (70) (2021)
6. Forecasting macroeconomic risks
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 37, (3), 1173-1191 View citations (36)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks, Staff Reports (2020) View citations (1) (2020)
7. MULTIMODALITY IN MACROFINANCIAL DYNAMICS
   International Economic Review, 2021, 62, (2), 861-886 View citations (23)
   See also Working Paper Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (6) (2020)

2019

8. Global trends in interest rates
   Journal of International Economics, 2019, 118, (C), 248-262 View citations (89)
   See also Working Paper Global Trends in Interest Rates, 2019 Meeting Papers (2019) View citations (117) (2019)
   Chapter Global Trends in Interest Rates, NBER Chapters, 2018, 248-262 (2018) View citations (31) (2018)
9. Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (5), 137-173 View citations (21)
   See also Working Paper Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?, Working Paper Series (2019) View citations (22) (2019)
10. Priors for the Long Run
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2019, 114, (526), 565-580 View citations (43)
    See also Working Paper Priors for the long run, Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (13) (2018)
11. Vulnerable Growth
    American Economic Review, 2019, 109, (4), 1263-89 View citations (136)
    See also Working Paper Vulnerable Growth, Liberty Street Economics (2018) View citations (42) (2018)

2018

12. Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data
    Annual Review of Economics, 2018, 10, (1), 615-643 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data, CEPR Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (104) (2018)

2017

13. Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017, 92, (C), 31-46 View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields, CSEF Working Papers (2014) View citations (15) (2014)
14. Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 235-316 View citations (204)
    See also Working Paper Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest, 2017 Meeting Papers (2017) View citations (204) (2017)
15. The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, 32, (5), 952-964 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data, Working Paper Series (2016) View citations (6) (2016)
16. The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis
    Empirical Economics, 2017, 53, (1), 247-265 View citations (16)

2016

17. Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2016, 34, (3), 342-344
18. Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, 84, (C), 201-215 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting, Staff Reports (2015) View citations (1) (2015)
19. The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2016, 12, (3), 29-57 View citations (118)
    See also Working Paper The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of OMT Announcements, Working Papers ECARES (2014) View citations (136) (2014)
20. Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2016, 34, (3), 472-485 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2014) View citations (8) (2014)

2015

21. Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (3), 739-756 View citations (130)
    See also Working Paper Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections, Working Papers ECARES (2014) View citations (22) (2014)
22. Optimal combination of survey forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (4), 1096-1103 View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (6) (2012)
23. Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, 97, (2), 436-451 View citations (531)
    See also Working Paper Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions, Working Papers ECARES (2012) View citations (106) (2012)

2014

24. Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 635-644 View citations (95)
    See also Working Paper Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (68) (2010)

2013

25. Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013, 28, (1), 82-101 View citations (267)
    See also Working Paper Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change, Working Paper Series (2010) View citations (7) (2010)

2012

26. A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1014-1024 View citations (223)
    See also Working Paper A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models, Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) (2012) View citations (270) (2012)
27. An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1000-1013 View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area, Working Papers ECARES (2010) View citations (2) (2010)
28. Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 74, (2), 306-326 View citations (54)
    See also Working Paper Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (38) (2007)
29. The ECB and the Interbank Market
    Economic Journal, 2012, 122, (564), F467-F486 View citations (100)
    See also Working Paper The ECB and the Interbank Market, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (106) (2012)

2011

30. A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering
    Journal of Econometrics, 2011, 164, (1), 188-205 View citations (337)
    See also Working Paper A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering, Post-Print (2011) View citations (306) (2011)
31. Market Freedom and the Global Recession
    IMF Economic Review, 2011, 59, (1), 111-135 View citations (81)
    See also Working Paper Market freedom and the global recession, ULB Institutional Repository (2011) View citations (75) (2011)
32. Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth
    Econometrics Journal, 2011, 14, (1), C25-C44 View citations (104)
    Also in Econometrics Journal, 2011, 14, C25-C44 (2011) View citations (81)
    See also Working Paper Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth, Working Papers ECARES (2008) View citations (50) (2008)

2010

33. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 180 - 190
34. Large Bayesian vector auto regressions
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 71-92 View citations (898)
    Also in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 71-92 (2010) View citations (479)
    See also Working Paper Bayesian VARs with Large Panels, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (60) (2007)
35. The Feldstein-Horioka Fact
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 103 - 117 View citations (19)
    See also Chapter The Feldstein-Horioka Fact, NBER Chapters, 2010, 103-117 (2010) View citations (19) (2010)
    Working Paper The Feldstein-Horioka Fact, Working Papers ECARES (2009) View citations (29) (2009)

2009

36. Business cycles in the euro area
    Research Bulletin, 2009, 8, 5-7 View citations (42)
    See also Chapter Business Cycles in the Euro Area, NBER Chapters, 2010, 141-167 (2010) View citations (85) (2010)
    Working Paper Business Cycles in the Euro Area, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (60) (2009)
37. Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs"
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (4), 684-686 View citations (11)
38. NOWCASTING EURO AREA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN REAL TIME: THE ROLE OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
    National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, (1), 90-97 View citations (41)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2009, 210, 90-97 (2009) View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator, Working Papers ECARES (2009) View citations (42) (2009)
39. OPENING THE BLACK BOX: STRUCTURAL FACTOR MODELS WITH LARGE CROSS SECTIONS
    Econometric Theory, 2009, 25, (5), 1319-1347 View citations (336)
    See also Working Paper Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections, Working Papers ECARES (2008) View citations (62) (2008)

2008

40. Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, 6, (2-3), 621-633 View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks, Working Paper Series (2008) View citations (123) (2008)
41. Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?
    Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 146, (2), 318-328 View citations (386)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (58) (2006)
42. Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (4), 665-676 View citations (776)
    See also Working Paper Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases, Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 (2007) View citations (17) (2007)

2007

43. A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2007, 3, (4), 145-180 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (35) (2007)

2006

44. Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006, 4, (2-3), 455-465 View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from Past Observations?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (121) (2006)
45. VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 132, (1), 257-279 View citations (69)
    See also Working Paper VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models, ULB Institutional Repository (2006) View citations (64) (2006)

Chapters

2024

1. Nowcasting recession risk
   Chapter 7 in Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, 2024, pp 156-186 View citations (1)

2018

2. Global Trends in Interest Rates
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2018, 2018, pp 248-262 View citations (31)
   See also Working Paper Global Trends in Interest Rates, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (117) (2019)
   Journal Article Global trends in interest rates, Elsevier (2019) View citations (89) (2019)

2016

3. Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
   A chapter in Dynamic Factor Models, 2016, vol. 35, pp 569-594 View citations (17)
   See also Working Paper Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2015) View citations (11) (2015)

2013

4. Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow
   Elsevier View citations (177)
   See also Working Paper Now-casting and the real-time data flow, European Central Bank (2013) View citations (215) (2013)

2011

5. MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY AND MONETARY POLICY: SOME LESSONS FROM THE EURO AREA
   Chapter 8 in Macroprudential Regulatory Policies The New Road to Financial Stability?, 2011, pp 103-119

2010

6. Business Cycles in the Euro Area
   A chapter in Europe and the Euro, 2010, pp 141-167 View citations (85)
   See also Working Paper Business Cycles in the Euro Area, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (60) (2009)
   Journal Article Business cycles in the euro area, European Central Bank (2009) View citations (42) (2009)
7. Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 180-190 View citations (10)
8. The Feldstein-Horioka Fact
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 103-117 View citations (19)
   See also Journal Article The Feldstein-Horioka Fact, University of Chicago Press (2010) View citations (19) (2010)
   Working Paper The Feldstein-Horioka Fact, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles (2009) View citations (29) (2009)

2006

9. Panel Discussion
   Springer

2005

10. Monetary Policy in Real Time
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, 2005, pp 161-224 View citations (163)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy in Real Time, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University (2005) View citations (133) (2005)