Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One

Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone and David Lucca

No 20200210, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The study of the business cycle—fluctuations in aggregate economic activity between times of widespread expansion and contraction—is one of the foremost pursuits in macroeconomics. But even distinguishing periods of expansion and recession can be challenging. In this post, we discuss different conceptual approaches to dating the business cycle, study their past performance for the U.S. economy, and highlight the informativeness of labor market indicators.

Keywords: Business cycle dating; recessions; expansions; labor markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-02-10
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