Details about Richard K. Crump

Access statistics for papers by Richard K. Crump.

Last updated 2025-03-19. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pcr107

Working Papers

2024

1. A Jackknife Variance Estimator for Panel Regressions
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
2. A Simple Diagnostic for Time-Series and Panel-Data Regressions
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
3. Beta-Sorted Portfolios
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024)
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2023)
4. Binscatter Regressions
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article Binscatter regressions, Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC (2025) (2025)
5. Corporate Bond Market Distress
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2021) View citations (2)
6. Expectations and the Final Mile of Disinflation
   Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
7. Is There Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis?
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
8. Nonlinear Binscatter Methods
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2024) View citations (1)
9. On Binscatter
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019)
   French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024, Stata Users Group (2024)
   See also Journal Article On Binscatter, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2024) (2024)
10. The Nonlinear Case Against Leaning Against the Wind
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
11. The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2024) View citations (4) (2024)

2023

12. A Bayesian VAR Model Perspective on the Lagged Effect of Monetary Policy
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
13. How Large Are Inflation Revisions? The Difficulty of Monitoring Prices in Real Time
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
14. Look Out for Outlook-at-Risk
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
15. Sparse Trend Estimation
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
16. The New York Fed DSGE Model Perspective on the Lagged Effect of Monetary Policy
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
17. What Is “Outlook-at-Risk?”
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2022

18. How Is the Corporate Bond Market Functioning as Interest Rates Increase?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
19. How Is the Corporate Bond Market Responding to Financial Market Volatility?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
20. Short-Dated Term Premia and the Level of Inflation
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
21. What Is Corporate Bond Market Distress?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2021

22. A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
23. COVID Response: The Commercial Paper Funding Facility
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (3)
24. COVID Response: The Primary and Secondary Corporate Credit Facilities
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
25. Measuring the Forest through the Trees: The Corporate Bond Market Distress Index
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
26. The Persistent Compression of the Breakeven Inflation Curve
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
27. The Term Structure of Expectations
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)

2020

28. Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (6)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (5)
29. Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
30. Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
31. The Commercial Paper Funding Facility
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    See also Journal Article The Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2022) (2022)
32. The Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
33. Unemployment Rate Benchmarks
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)

2019

34. A Unified Approach to Measuring u*
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (53)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (17)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (43)
    See also Journal Article A Unified Approach to Measuring u*, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2019) View citations (2) (2019)
35. Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2016) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2020) View citations (9) (2020)
36. Deconstructing the yield curve
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Deconstructing the Yield Curve, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2025) (2025)
37. Real Inventory Slowdowns
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2018

38. Changing Risk-Return Profiles
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
    Also in Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (2)
39. The Effects of Post-Crisis Banking Reforms
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2016

40. Forecasting Interest Rates over the Long Run
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
41. Fundamental Disagreement: How Much and Why?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (47)
42. Nonlinearity and Flight-to-Safety in the Risk-Return Tradeoff for Stocks and Bonds
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (4)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2015) View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2019) View citations (35) (2019)
43. Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (3)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2015) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article Subjective intertemporal substitution, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (25) (2022)
44. The term structure of expectations and bond yields
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (18)
45. What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2015

46. Discounting the Long-Run
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
47. Regression Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (45)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2011) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models, Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (34) (2015)

2014

48. Connecting “The Dots”: Disagreement in the Federal Open Market Committee
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
49. Data Insight: Which Growth Rate? It’s a Weighty Subject
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
50. Fundamental disagreement
    Working papers, Banque de France View citations (34)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Fundamental disagreement, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (73) (2016)
51. Interest Rate Derivatives and Monetary Policy Expectations
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
52. Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement
    2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (8)
53. SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (10)
    Also in CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2008) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES, Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press (2014) View citations (19) (2014)
54. Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
55. Treasury Term Premia: 1961-Present
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)

2013

56. Do Treasury Term Premia Rise around Monetary Tightenings?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
57. Generalized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average Derivatives
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (21)
    Also in CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2011) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Generalized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average Derivatives, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals (2013) View citations (23) (2013)
58. Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)
59. Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2012

60. Decomposing real and nominal yield curves
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Decomposing real and nominal yield curves, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (86) (2016)
61. Is U.S. Monetary Policy Seasonal?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
62. Skills Mismatch, Construction Workers and the Labor Market
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2011

63. A Look at the Accuracy of Policy Expectations
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)

2010

64. Bootstrapping Density-Weighted Average Derivatives
    CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (8)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2010) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article BOOTSTRAPPING DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES, Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press (2014) View citations (4) (2014)
65. Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2011) View citations (26) (2011)

2009

66. Dealing with Limited Overlap in Estimation of Average Treatment Effects
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (365)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Miami, Department of Economics (2007) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects, Biometrika, Biometrika Trust (2009) View citations (399) (2009)
67. Robust Data-Driven Inference for Density-Weighted Average Derivatives
    CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Robust Data-Driven Inference for Density-Weighted Average Derivatives, Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association (2010) View citations (27) (2010)

2008

68. Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (73)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Miami, Department of Economics (2006) View citations (3)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2006) View citations (19)
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2008) View citations (70) (2008)

2007

69. Optimal Inference for Instrumental Variables Regression with non-Gaussian Errors
    CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Optimal inference for instrumental variables regression with non-Gaussian errors, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2012) View citations (12) (2012)

2006

70. Moving the Goalposts: Addressing Limited Overlap in Estimation of Average Treatment Effects by Changing the Estimand
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (75)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Miami, Department of Economics (2006) View citations (75)
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (75)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Binscatter regressions
   Stata Journal, 2025, 25, (1), 3-50
   See also Working Paper Binscatter Regressions, Papers (2024) View citations (3) (2024)
2. Deconstructing the Yield Curve
   The Review of Financial Studies, 2025, 38, (2), 381-421
   See also Working Paper Deconstructing the yield curve, Staff Reports (2019) View citations (1) (2019)

2024

3. On Binscatter
   American Economic Review, 2024, 114, (5), 1488-1514
   See also Working Paper On Binscatter, Papers (2024) (2024)
4. The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 145, (S) View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times, Staff Reports (2024) View citations (4) (2024)

2022

5. On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns
   Econometrica, 2022, 90, (1), 295-314 View citations (5)
6. Subjective intertemporal substitution
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, 126, (C), 118-133 View citations (25)
   See also Working Paper Subjective Intertemporal Substitution, 2016 Meeting Papers (2016) View citations (3) (2016)
7. The Commercial Paper Funding Facility
   Economic Policy Review, 2022, 28, (1)
   See also Working Paper The Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Liberty Street Economics (2020) (2020)
8. The Primary and Secondary Corporate Credit Facilities
   Economic Policy Review, 2022, 28, (1)

2020

9. Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 102, (3), 531-551 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference, Papers (2019) View citations (1) (2019)

2019

10. A Unified Approach to Measuring u*
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019, 50, (1 (Spring)), 143-238 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper A Unified Approach to Measuring u*, CEPR Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (53) (2019)
11. Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds
    Journal of Finance, 2019, 74, (4), 1931-1973 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Nonlinearity and Flight-to-Safety in the Risk-Return Tradeoff for Stocks and Bonds, CEPR Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (4) (2016)

2018

12. Review of New York Fed studies on the effects of post-crisis banking reforms
    Economic Policy Review, 2018, (24-2), 71-90

2016

13. Decomposing real and nominal yield curves
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, 84, (C), 182-200 View citations (86)
    See also Working Paper Decomposing real and nominal yield curves, Staff Reports (2012) View citations (18) (2012)
14. Fundamental disagreement
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, 83, (C), 106-128 View citations (73)
    See also Working Paper Fundamental disagreement, Working papers (2014) View citations (34) (2014)

2015

15. Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models
    Journal of Financial Economics, 2015, 118, (2), 211-244 View citations (34)
    See also Working Paper Regression Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (45) (2015)

2014

16. BOOTSTRAPPING DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES
    Econometric Theory, 2014, 30, (6), 1135-1164 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Bootstrapping Density-Weighted Average Derivatives, CREATES Research Papers (2010) View citations (8) (2010)
17. Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2014, 32, (3), 324-329
18. SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES
    Econometric Theory, 2014, 30, (1), 176-200 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (10) (2014)

2013

19. Generalized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average Derivatives
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2013, 108, (504), 1243-1256 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Generalized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average Derivatives, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2013) View citations (21) (2013)
20. Pricing the term structure with linear regressions
    Journal of Financial Economics, 2013, 110, (1), 110-138 View citations (385)
21. Rejoinder
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2013, 108, (504), 1265-1268

2012

22. Optimal inference for instrumental variables regression with non-Gaussian errors
    Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 167, (1), 1-15 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Optimal Inference for Instrumental Variables Regression with non-Gaussian Errors, CREATES Research Papers (2007) View citations (3) (2007)

2011

23. Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment
    American Economic Review, 2011, 101, (4), 1616-28 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (1) (2010)

2010

24. Robust Data-Driven Inference for Density-Weighted Average Derivatives
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2010, 105, (491), 1070-1083 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Robust Data-Driven Inference for Density-Weighted Average Derivatives, CREATES Research Papers (2009) View citations (3) (2009)

2009

25. Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects
    Biometrika, 2009, 96, (1), 187-199 View citations (399)
    See also Working Paper Dealing with Limited Overlap in Estimation of Average Treatment Effects, Scholarly Articles (2009) View citations (365) (2009)

2008

26. Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 90, (3), 389-405 View citations (70)
    See also Working Paper Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity, Scholarly Articles (2008) View citations (73) (2008)