Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two

Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone and David Lucca

No 20200212, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: In our previous post, we presented evidence suggesting that labor market indicators provide the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle. In this post, we further develop the case. In fact, the unemployment rate has provided an almost perfect record of distinguishing the beginning of recessions in the post-war U.S. economy. We also show that using more granular labor market data, such as by region or industry, also provides valuable information about the state of the business cycle.

Keywords: Business cycle dating; recessions; expansions; labor markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-02-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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