Look Out for Outlook-at-Risk

Nina Boyarchenko, Richard Crump, Leonardo Elias and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney ()

No 20230517, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The timely characterization of risks to the economic outlook plays an important role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. In a February 2023 Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced the concept of “Outlook-at-Risk”—that is, the downside risk to real activity and two-sided risks to inflation. Today we are launching Outlook-at-Risk as a regularly updated data product, with new readings for the conditional distributions of real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation to be published each month. In this post, we use the data on conditional distributions to investigate how two-sided risks to inflation and downside risks to real activity have evolved over the current and previous five monetary policy tightening cycles.

Keywords: Outlook-at-Risk; monetary policy tightening (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban and nep-rmg
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