Is U.S. Monetary Policy Seasonal?

Richard Crump and David Lucca

No 20121001, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: Many economic time series display periodic and predictable patterns within each calendar year, generally referred to as seasonal effects. For example, retail sales tend to be higher in December than in other months. These patterns are well-known to economists, who apply statistical filters to remove seasonal effects so that the resulting series are more easily comparable across months. Because policy decisions are based on seasonally adjusted series, we wouldn’t expect the decisions to exhibit any seasonal behavior. Yet, in this post we find that the Federal Reserve has been much more likely to lower interest rates in the first month of each quarter over the past twenty-five years. While some of this seasonality is a result of meeting scheduling, a large seasonal component remains unexplained.

Keywords: Federal funds rate; FOMC; seasonality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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