Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, Domenico Giannone and Michele Modugno
Additional contact information
Thiago Revil T. Ferreira: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/thiago-r-t-ferreira.htm

No 1313, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries--Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by incorporating all market moving indicators in real time. We find that area wide and country-specific data provide informative signals to now-cast the economic conditions in the euro area and member countries. The model provides accurate predictions of economic conditions in real time over a period that covers the past three recessions.

Keywords: Now-casting; Euro area; Dynamic factor models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1313.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgif:1313

DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2021.1313

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier ().