Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth

Lucrezia Reichlin, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Elena Angelini, Rünstler, Gerhard and Domenico Giannone
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gerhard Rünstler ()

No 6746, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2005. The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other `soft' information are valuable for now-casting.

Keywords: Forecasting; Monetary policy; Factor model; Real time data; Large data-sets; News (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C53 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (62)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP6746 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth (2011)
Journal Article: Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth (2011)
Working Paper: Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth (2008)
Working Paper: Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6746

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP6746

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().