The ESCB forecasting models: what are they and what are they good for?

Elena Angelini, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Thomas Haertel, Magdalena Lalik, Pierre Aldama, František Brázdik, Milan Damjanović, Davide Fantino, Pablo Garcia Sanchez, Paolo Guarda, Ide Kearney, Laura Mociunaite, Maria Christine Saliba, Yiqiao Sun, Máté Barnabás Tóth, Grigor Stoevsky, Wouter Van der Veken, Ernestas Virbickas, Guido Bulligan, Gabriela Castro, Martin Feješ, Kacper Grejcz, Katarzyna Hertel, Darius Imbrasas, Markus Kontny, Bob Krebs, Ieva Opmane, Abigail Marie Rapa, Mikko Sariola, Ana Sequeira, Rubén Veiga Duarte, Hannu Viertola and Klaus Vondra

No 381, Occasional Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite models tailored to particular questions or country-specific aspects. Each type of model has its own strengths and weaknesses and can help answer different questions. The models should therefore be seen as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. Semi-structural models are commonly used to produce baseline projection exercises, since they offer the flexibility to combine expert judgement with empirical data and have enough complexity and structure to provide a good representation of the economy. DSGE models, valued for their internal consistency and strong theoretical foundations, are another core forecasting tool used by some central banks, particularly to analyse counterfactuals. Time series models tend to be better suited to forecasting the short term, while scenario analysis and special events may require satellite models, extensions of existing models or even the development of new models tailored to the question at hand. The report also addresses the challenges to macroeconomic projections posed by data quality, including revisions and missing data, and describes the methods implemented to mitigate their effects. The report identifies “quick wins” to improve the projection process by enhancing the transparency and comparability of results through standardised reporting frameworks and better measurement of the judgement integrated in forecasts. The findings highlight the fundamental role of macroeconomic models in underpinning the ESCB’s projection exercises and ensuring that the Governing Council’s assessments and deliberations rest on coherent, granular and credible analysis of both demand-side and supply-side dynamics. JEL Classification: C30, C53, C54, E52

Keywords: economic models; forecasting; macroeconometrics; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-ets, nep-for and nep-mon
Note: 338657
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