Occasional Paper Series

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219: Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises

Jan Hannes Lang, Cosimo Izzo, Stephan Fahr and Josef Ruzicka

218: Availability of high-quality liquid assets and monetary policy operations: an analysis for the euro area

Roel Grandia, Petra Hänling, Michelina Lo Russo and Pontus Aberg

217: The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43

Claus Brand, Marcin Bielecki and Adrian Penalver

216: A euro area macroeconomic stabilisation function: assessing options in view of their redistribution and stabilisation properties

Gerrit Koester and David Sondermann

215: Business investment in EU countries

Marta Banbura, Maria Albani, Gene Ambrocio, Dirk Bursian, Ginters Buss, Jasper de Winter, Miroslav Gavura, Claire Giordano, Paulo Júlio, Julien Le Roux, Matija Lozej, Sune Malthe-Thagaard, José Maria, Carmen Martinez Carrascal, Philipp Meinen, Nektarios Michail, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Sebastiaan Pool, Rafael Ravnik, Lucio San Juan del Peso, Mate Toth and Giordano Zevi

214: Systemic liquidity concept, measurement and macroprudential instruments

Clemens Bonner, Michael Wedow, Katarzyna Budnik, Anne Koban, Christoffer Kok, Dimitrios Laliotis, Barbara Meller, Ana Sofia Melo, Iulia Moldovan, Stefan Schmitz, Cyril Couaillier, Patty Duijm, Peter Faykiss, Krzysztof Gajewski, Laura Izquierdo Rios, Matías Lamas, Georgia Lialiouti, Sebastian Loehe, Joana Matos, Alexandra Morão, Ana Pereira, Pierre Pessarossi, Aurea Marques, Christoph Roling, Virgilijus Rutkauskas, Leonid Silbermann, Janos Szakacs, Päivi Tissari, Eva Ubl, Domenica Di Virgilio, Nikolaos Vlachogiannakis and Claudia Holtorf

213: A quantitative analysis of the size of IMF resources

Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Menno Broos, Sonsoles Gallego Herrero, Isabel Garrido Chamorro, Fernando López Vicente, Mayukh Mukhopadhyay, Claudia Maurini and Benjamin Vonessen

212: Real convergence in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe

Piotr Żuk and Li Savelin

211: Macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area: where do we stand?

Beatrice Pierluigi and David Sondermann

210: Structural policies in the euro area

Klaus Masuch, Robert Anderton, Ralph Setzer and Nicholai Benalal

209: The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework Q2 2016 - Q4 2017

Alexander Bock, Miha Cajnko, Svetla Daskalova, Iwona Durka, Brian Gallagher, Roel Grandia, Glenn Haberbush, Annette Kamps, Alaoishe Luskin, Michelina Lo Russo, Mª Carmen Castillo Lozoya, Filippo Pasqualone, Michael Thomas and Isabel Vasconcelos

208: Completing the Banking Union with a European Deposit Insurance Scheme: who is afraid of cross-subsidisation?

Jacopo Carmassi, Sonja Dobkowitz, Johanne Evrard, Laura Parisi, André Silva and Michael Wedow

206: The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area

Alistair Dieppe, Robert Gilhooly, Jenny Han, Iikka Korhonen and David Lodge

205: Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications

Gerhard Rünstler, Hiona Balfoussia, Lorenzo Burlon, Ginters Buss, Mariarosaria Comunale, Bruno De Backer, Hans Dewachter, Paolo Guarda, Markus Haavio, Irma Hindrayanto, Nikolay Iskrev, Ivan Jaccard, Dmitry Kulikov, Davor Kunovac, Matthieu Lequien, Matija Lozej, Martin Mandler, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Jesper Pedersen, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Ansgar Rannenberg, Eyno Rots, Michael Scharnagl, Peter Welz and Črt Lenarčič

204: Modelling euro banknote quality in circulation

Harald Deinhammer and Anna Ladi

203: Real convergence in the euro area: a long-term perspective

Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo, Ettore Dorrucci, Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz and Sona Muzikarova

202: Developing macroprudential policy for alternative investment funds

Koen van der Veer, Anouk Levels, Claudia Lambert, Christian Weistroffer, Raymond Chaudron, René de Sousa van Stralen and Luis Molestina Vivar

201: The use of cash by households in the euro area

Henk Esselink and Lola Hernandez

200: The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area

Luca Baldo, Benoît Hallinger, Caspar Helmus, Niko Herrala, Débora Martins, Felix Mohing, Filippos Petroulakis, Marc Resinek, Olivier Vergote, Benoît Usciati and Yizhou Wang

199: Tracing European structured finance counterparty networks

Adrien Amzallag and Maximilian L. Blau

198: Large net foreign liabilities of euro area countries

Nico Zorell

197: Access to finance in the Western Balkans

Isabella Moder and Niccolò Bonifai

196: The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme and TARGET balances

Jens Eisenschmidt, Danielle Kedan, Martin Schmitz, Ramón Adalid and Patrick Papsdorf

195: The profitability of banks in a context of negative monetary policy rates: the cases of Sweden and Denmark

Christophe Madaschi and Irene Pablos Nuevo

194: A new database for financial crises in European countries

Marco Lo Duca, Anne Koban, Marisa Basten, Elias Bengtsson, Benjamin Klaus, Piotr Kusmierczyk, Jan Hannes Lang, Carsten Detken and Tuomas Peltonen

193: Dark pools in European equity markets: emergence, competition and implications

Monica Petrescu and Michael Wedow

192: Labour market adjustment in Europe during the crisis: microeconomic evidence from the Wage Dynamics Network survey

Mario Izquierdo, Juan F Jimeno, Theodora Kosma, Ana Lamo, Stephen Millard, Tairi Room and Eliana Viviano

191: The transmission channels of monetary, macro- and microprudential policies and their interrelations

Andreas Beyer, Giulio Nicoletti, Niki Papadopoulou, Patrick Papsdorf, Gerhard Rünstler, Claudia Schwarz, João Sousa and Olivier Vergote

190: Financial stability assessment of EU candidate and potential candidate countries

Martin Gächter, Piotr Macki, Isabella Moder, Éva Katalin Polgár, Li Savelin and Piotr Żuk

189: The Eurosystem collateral framework explained

Ulrich Bindseil, Marco Corsi, Benjamin Sahel and Ad Visser

188: The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2012

Inmaculada Alvarez, Fabio Casavecchia, Marino De Luca, Alexander Duering, Fabian Eser, Caspar Helmus, Christophe Hemous, Niko Herrala, Julija Jakovicka, Michelina Lo Russo, Filippo Pasqualone, Marc Rubens, Rita Isabel Prior Soares and Fabrizio Zennaro

187: The Analytical Credit Dataset - A magnifying glass for analysing credit in the euro area

Jean-Marc Israël, Violetta Damia, Riccardo Bonci and Gibran Watfe

186: EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation

Rodolfo Arioli, Colm Bates, Heinz Christian Dieden, Ioana Duca, Roberta Friz, Christian Gayer, Geoff Kenny, Aidan Meyler and Iskra Pavlova

185: Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: a methodological framework

Thomas Warmedinger, Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Francesco Drudi, Ralph Setzer, Roberta De Stefani, Othman Bouabdallah and Cristina Checherita Westphal

184: Benchmarking institutional and structural indicators in EU candidate and potential candidate countries

Li Savelin and Roberto Alvarez Orviz

183: Stress-Testing of liquidity risk in TARGET2

Juan Carlos Frutos de Andres, Patrick Papsdorf, Luca Arciero, Matti Hellqvist, Patrick Heyvaert, Alexandros Kaliontzoglou, Ronald König, Kasperi Korpinen, Clement Martin, Alexander Müller, Miguel Perez Garcia de Mirasierra, Maxime Ponsart, Edoardo Rainone, Peter Rosenkranz and Sara Testi

182: Euro area fiscal stance

Marien Ferdinandusse, Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Maria Grazia Attinasi, Laure Lalouette, Krzysztof Bańkowski, Georgios Palaiodimos and Maria Campos

181: Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences

Matteo Ciccarelli and Chiara Osbat

180: Dealing with large and volatile capital flows and the role of the IMF

Menno Broos, Michalis Ghalanos, Bernard Kennedy, Alexander Landbeck, Christina Lerner, Paula Menezes, Alessandro Schiavone, Thomas Tilley, Francesca Viani, Dennis Reinhardt, Paul Metzemakers, Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Pablo Moreno, Irina Balteanu, John Beirne, Axel Brüggemann, Matthieu Bussiere, Angel Estrada, Jon Frost, Valerie Herzberg and Benjamin Vonessen

179: The euro area bank lending survey

Petra Köhler-Ulbrich, Hannah S. Hempell and Silvia Scopel

178: Understanding the weakness in global trade - What is the new normal?

Bruno Cabrillac, Alexander Al-Haschimi, Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková, Alessandro Borin, Matthieu Bussiere, Rafael Cezar, Alexis Derviz, Dimitra Dimitropoulou, Laurent Ferrara, Martin Gächter, Guillaume Gaulier, Juhana Hukkinen, Mary Keeney, David Lodge, Michele Mancini, Clément Marsilli, Jaime Martinez-Martin, Wojciech Mroczek, Jakub Muck, Elena Pavlova, Judit Rariga, Juozas Šalaševičius, Daniel Santabárbara, Frauke Skudelny, Ulf Slopek, Walter Steingress, Alex Tuckett, Neeltje Van Horen, Duncan Van Limbergen, Laurent Walravens and Julia Wörz

177: What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution

Livio Stracca and Beatrice Scheubel

176: The fiscal and macroeconomic effects of government wages and employment reform

Javier Pérez, Marta Rodríguez-Vives, Domenico Depalo, Evangelia Papapetrou, Marie Aouriri, Maria Campos, Dmitrij Celov, Jurga Pesliakaite and Roberto Ramos

175: Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis

Pierre Lafourcade, Andrea Gerali, Jan Bruha, Dirk Bursian, Ginters Buss, Vesna Corbo, Markus Haavio, Christina Håkanson, Tibor Hlédik, Gábor Kátay, Dmitry Kulikov, Matija Lozej, José Maria, Brian Micallef, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Juuso Vanhala and Marin Zeleznik

174: Shadow banking in the euro area: risks and vulnerabilities in the investment fund sector

Philippe Molitor, Nicola Doyle, Lieven Hermans and Christian Weistroffer

173: Safeguarding the euro as a currency beyond the state

Ad van Riet

172: Distributed ledger technologies in securities post-trading - Revolution or evolution?

Wiebe Ruttenberg and Andrea Pinna

171: Basel III and recourse to Eurosystem monetary policy operations

Michael Wedow, Benjamin Sahel, Antonio Scalia, Franziska Schobert, Annalisa Bucalossi, Cristina Fonseca Coutinho, Kerstin Junius, Alaoishe Luskin, Angeliki Momtsia, Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau, Stefan Schmitz and Rita Isabel Prior Soares

170: Strengthening the role of local currencies in EU candidate and potential candidate countries

Ulrich Windischbauer

169: Profit distribution and loss coverage rules for central banks

Werner Studener, Niall Merriman, Polychronis Karakitsos and Daniela Bunea