Exchange rate prediction redux: new models, new data, new currencies
Menzie Chinn (),
Antonio Garcia Pascual and
No 2018, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models, and assessed performance at horizons of up to 5 years. In this paper, we further expand the set of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity factors. The performance of these models is compared against the random walk benchmark. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the JEL Classification: F31, F47
Keywords: behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model; exchange rates; forecasting performance; interest rate parity; monetary model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mon and nep-opm
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies (2019)
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172018
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().