Details about Menzie Chinn

Homepage:	http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn
Phone:	608 262 7397
Postal address:	Department of Economics University of Wisconsin 7470 Social Science Building 1180 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706-1393
Workplace:	Economics Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison, (more information at EDIRC) National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), (more information at EDIRC) Banque de France (Bank of France), (more information at EDIRC) Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Menzie Chinn.

Last updated 2025-02-17. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pch129

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Working Papers

2024

1. Current Account Dynamics and the Saving-Investment Nexus In a Changing and Uncertain World
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
2. The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
3. The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)

2023

4. Forecasting real activity using cross-sectoral stock market information
   Post-Print, HAL View citations (5)
5. Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries
   Post-Print, HAL View citations (5)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (8)
   See also Journal Article Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries, Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell (2023) View citations (4) (2023)
6. Measuring Financial Integration: More Data, More Countries, More Expectations
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
7. Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: a Three-Step Approach
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
   Also in Working papers, Banque de France (2023) View citations (3)

2022

8. Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
9. Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section
   Working papers, Banque de France
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022)
10. The Impacts of Crises on the Trilemma Configurations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
11. The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations
    Discussion papers, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
    See also Journal Article The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations, Open Economies Review, Springer (2023) (2023)
12. The New Fama Puzzle
    Post-Print, HAL
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article The New Fama Puzzle, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2022) View citations (3) (2022)

2021

13. Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2022) View citations (9) (2022)

2019

14. A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2022) View citations (5) (2022)

2018

15. Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (5)
    Also in Post-Print, HAL (2017) View citations (3)
16. International Financial Integration in a Changing Policy Context – the End of an Era?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

2017

17. Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (31)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2017) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2019) View citations (66) (2019)
18. Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies, Open Economies Review, Springer (2020) View citations (24) (2020)

2016

19. Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers: The East Asian Crisis Plus 20
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2017) View citations (21) (2017)
20. Estimating Currency Misalignment Using the Penn Effect: It’s Not as Simple As It Looks
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2017) View citations (15) (2017)

2015

21. For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises
    Working papers, Banque de France View citations (40)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2015) View citations (43) (2015)
22. Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Trilemma in the New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (57)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2016) View citations (157) (2016)
23. Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound, Open Economies Review, Springer (2018) View citations (8) (2018)

2014

24. Current Account Imbalances and International Financial Integration
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
25. Explaining US employment growth after the Great Recession: the role of output-employment non-linearities
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (13) (2014)
26. The Rise of the “Redback” and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies
    ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute View citations (11)
27. The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo
28. The Rise of the “Redback†and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies
    Finance Working Papers, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research
    Also in Macroeconomics Working Papers, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research (2014)

2013

29. Global spillovers and domestic monetary policy
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements View citations (34)
30. Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law
    Working Papers, CEPII research center View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (7)
    EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX (2013) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, HAL (2013)
31. Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (2)

2012

32. Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (76)
    See also Journal Article Are Chinese trade flows different?, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2012) View citations (70) (2012)
33. Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (34)

2011

34. A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (32)
    See also Journal Article A forensic analysis of global imbalances, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press (2014) View citations (72) (2014)

2010

35. Financing U.S. debt: Is there enough money in the world – and at what cost?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Financing US Debt: Is There Enough Money in the World – and at What Cost?, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2011) View citations (5) (2011)
36. Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (21)
37. Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
    Also in ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank (2009) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier (2011) View citations (73) (2011)
38. The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma
    Working Papers, eSocialSciences View citations (7)
    Also in ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute (2010) View citations (7)
    See also Chapter The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma, Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing (2012) (2012)
39. The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
    Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary View citations (24)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures, Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014) View citations (83) (2014)
40. The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2015) View citations (49) (2015)

2009

41. A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (10)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (62)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (62)
42. Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (10)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (183)
43. China's Current Account and Exchange Rate
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (26)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (38)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2009) View citations (54)
    See also Chapter China's Current Account and Exchange Rate, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (19) (2010)

2008

44. Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
45. Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
46. The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (54)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government (2008) View citations (51)
47. Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard Kennedy School of Government View citations (80)
    See also Journal Article Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2008) View citations (85) (2008)

2007

48. Debt and Interest Rates: The U.S. and the Euro Area
    Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (7)
49. East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (24)
    See also Chapter East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (10) (2009)
50. The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (155)
    Also in Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2007) View citations (140)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (147)
    See also Journal Article The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2007) View citations (144) (2007)

2006

51. Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment, International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2008) View citations (59) (2008)
52. ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2006) View citations (9)
    Working Papers, NET Institute (2006) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration, Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell (2010) View citations (47) (2010)
53. The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (10)
    See also Chapter The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration, Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing (2009) View citations (3) (2009)
54. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency?
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (14)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2006) View citations (14)
    Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government (2005) View citations (84)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (91)
    Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz (2005) View citations (80)
    See also Chapter Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (84) (2007)

2005

55. A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (37)
    See also Journal Article A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation, Open Economies Review, Springer (2006) View citations (145) (2006)
56. Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (68)
    See also Journal Article Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut", Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2007) View citations (304) (2007)
57. Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (523)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (34)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (35)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (35)
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2004) View citations (48)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (95)
    See also Journal Article Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2005) View citations (542) (2005)
58. Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)
59. Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (122)
60. The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (19)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (17)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (17)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier (2006) View citations (26) (2006)
61. The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (47)
62. Three Current Account Balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Three current account balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" interpretation, Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier (2009) View citations (18) (2009)
63. What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (112)
    Also in Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2005) View citations (102)
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (2005) View citations (100)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2005) View citations (92)
    See also Journal Article What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (1923) (2006)

2004

64. Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G-7 countries
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2002) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G7 countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2006) View citations (100) (2006)
65. Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (108)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (107)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (99)
66. The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration
    Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University View citations (31)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (29)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (33)
    Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (30)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (33)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2004) View citations (29)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (29)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2004) View citations (33)
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (2004) View citations (34)
    Center Discussion Papers, Yale University, Economic Growth Center (2004) View citations (30)
    See also Journal Article The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press (2007) View citations (105) (2007)

2003

67. A DECOMPOSITION OF GLOBAL LINKAGES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS OVER TIME
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (40)
    Also in Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (42)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (39)
    Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management (2003) View citations (43)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (39)
    See also Journal Article A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2004) View citations (291) (2004)
68. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (26)
    Also in Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2003) View citations (30)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2003) View citations (35)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (28)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration, China Economic Review, Elsevier (2003) View citations (34) (2003)
69. Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined, Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer (2005) View citations (35) (2005)
70. The Euro Area and World Interest Rates
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (32)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (32)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (32)
71. What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (10)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (11)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (10)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2003) View citations (11)

2002

72. Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (240)
73. Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit, Once Again
    Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz
    See also Journal Article Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2004) View citations (46) (2004)
74. Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (52)
75. The Compatability of Capital COntrols and Financial Development: A Selective Survey and Empirical Evidence
    Asia Pacific Economic Papers, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (1)

2000

76. Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2001) View citations (353) (2001)
77. Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (33)
78. How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (31)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (1999) View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?, International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2004) View citations (100) (2004)
79. Interest parity at short and long horizons
    SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes View citations (10)
80. International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (41)
    See also Journal Article International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1999) View citations (14) (1999)
81. Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (82)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2000) View citations (69)
    See also Journal Article Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2003) View citations (664) (2003)
82. Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons
    Discussion Paper Series, Hamburg Institute of International Economics View citations (11)
    Also in HWWA Discussion Papers, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) (2000) View citations (11)
83. The empirical determinants of the Euro: Short and long run perspectives
    SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes View citations (13)

1999

84. Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
85. Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (50)
    See also Journal Article Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (1999) View citations (49) (1999)
86. Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (58)
87. Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates, International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2001) View citations (37) (2001)
88. Measuring Misalignment: Purchasing Power Parity and East Asian Currencies in the 1990s
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (7)
89. Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)

1998

90. Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (69)
    See also Journal Article Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?, Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier (2000) View citations (73) (2000)
91. Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (113)
92. On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
    Also in Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1997) View citations (3)
    Working Papers, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf- (1997) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies, International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (1999) View citations (14) (1999)
93. The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (54)
    Also in Working Papers, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences (1998) View citations (49)
94. The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates
    Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) View citations (12)
    Also in Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1997) View citations (23)
    Working Papers, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf- (1997) View citations (16)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates, Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell (2000) View citations (79) (2000)

1997

95. Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    Also in International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany (1995) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (1998) View citations (32) (1998)
96. Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
97. Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (33)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations (108)
98. Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (53)

1996

99. Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    Also in International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany (1995)
    See also Journal Article Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan During the 1980's, International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals (1998) View citations (8) (1998)
100. Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
     NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
     Also in Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany (1995) View citations (3)
     See also Journal Article Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (1997) View citations (62) (1997)

1995

101. Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
102. Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis
     Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
     See also Journal Article Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press (1996) View citations (47) (1996)
103. Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
     See also Journal Article Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration, Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (1997) View citations (11) (1997)
104. How sensitive are estimated trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G-5 countries
     Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
105. More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests
     International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
106. National, regional and international capital markets: Measurement and implications for domestic financial fragility
     International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
107. The relative influence of US and Japan on real interest rates around the Pacific Rim
     International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
108. Whither the Yen? Implications of an intertemporal model of the Yen/Dollar rate
     International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
109. Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the US or Japan?
     Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (80)
     See also Journal Article Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (1995) View citations (91) (1995)

1993

110. Financial Links around the Pacific Rim: 1982-1992
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics View citations (19)
     Also in Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1993) View citations (2)
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (1993) View citations (6)
     See also Journal Article Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1992) View citations (3) (1992)
111. Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley View citations (12)
     Also in Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics (1993) View citations (19)
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1991) View citations (10)

1992

112. Financial and Currency Integration in the European Monetary System: The Statistical Record
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley View citations (17)
     Also in Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics (1992) View citations (30)

1991

113. Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
     See also Journal Article Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies, Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell (1993) View citations (57) (1993)
114. The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule in an Open Economy
     Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley View citations (7)

Journal Articles

2023

1. Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries
   Review of International Economics, 2023, 31, (3), 854-885 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries, Post-Print (2023) View citations (5) (2023)
2. Nowcasting world trade in real time with machine learning
   (Estimation du commerce mondial en temps réel grâce à l’apprentissage automatique)
   Bulletin de la Banque de France, 2023, (248)
3. The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations
   Open Economies Review, 2023, 34, (3), 479-517
   See also Working Paper The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations, Discussion papers (2022) (2022)

2022

4. A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 121, (C) View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses, NBER Working Papers (2019) View citations (4) (2019)
5. Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 122, (C) View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?, NBER Working Papers (2021) View citations (1) (2021)
6. The New Fama Puzzle
   IMF Economic Review, 2022, 70, (3), 451-486 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper The New Fama Puzzle, Post-Print (2022) (2022)

2020

7. Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies
   Open Economies Review, 2020, 31, (3), 529-563 View citations (24)
   See also Working Paper Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (9) (2017)

2019

8. Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 95, (C), 332-362 View citations (66)
   See also Working Paper Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (31) (2017)
9. International spillovers of monetary policy through global banks: introduction to the special issue
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 91, (C), 101-104 View citations (2)

2018

10. Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound
    Open Economies Review, 2018, 29, (1), 1-30 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound, NBER Working Papers (2015) View citations (6) (2015)

2017

11. Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, 74, (C), 258-282 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers: The East Asian Crisis Plus 20, NBER Working Papers (2016) View citations (5) (2016)
12. Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks
    International Finance, 2017, 20, (3), 222-242 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper Estimating Currency Misalignment Using the Penn Effect: It’s Not as Simple As It Looks, NBER Working Papers (2016) View citations (2) (2016)

2016

13. China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications
    Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2016, 152, (1), 43-67 View citations (6)
14. Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016, 68, (C), 298-330 View citations (157)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Trilemma in the New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions, NBER Working Papers (2015) View citations (57) (2015)

2015

15. Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies
    Open Economies Review, 2015, 26, (1), 155-174 View citations (7)
16. For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 52, (C), 127-145 View citations (43)
    See also Working Paper For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises, Working papers (2015) View citations (40) (2015)
17. The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time
    International Finance, 2015, 18, (2), 129-156 View citations (49)
    See also Working Paper The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (19) (2010)

2014

18. A forensic analysis of global imbalances
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2014, 66, (2), 465-490 View citations (72)
    See also Working Paper A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances, NBER Working Papers (2011) View citations (32) (2011)
19. Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014, 42, (C), 118-129 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Explaining US employment growth after the Great Recession: the role of output-employment non-linearities, Post-Print (2014) View citations (12) (2014)
20. The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
    Journal of Futures Markets, 2014, 34, (7), 607-636 View citations (83)
    See also Working Paper The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures, Working Papers (2010) View citations (24) (2010)

2013

21. A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95, (1), 168-184 View citations (104)
22. The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing
    Review of International Economics, 2013, 21, (3), 447-458 View citations (118)

2012

23. Are Chinese trade flows different?
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012, 31, (8), 2127-2146 View citations (70)
    See also Working Paper Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?, NBER Working Papers (2012) View citations (76) (2012)
24. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2012, 8, (1), 343 - 347

2011

25. Financing US Debt: Is There Enough Money in the World – and at What Cost?
    International Finance, 2011, 14, (3), 373-413 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Financing U.S. debt: Is there enough money in the world – and at what cost?, MPRA Paper (2010) View citations (1) (2010)
26. Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011, 43, (8), 1599-1624 View citations (53)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011, 43, (8), 1599-1624 (2011) View citations (9)
27. Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2011, 25, (3), 290-320 View citations (73)
    See also Working Paper Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (12) (2010)

2010

28. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 174 - 179
29. ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration
    Review of International Economics, 2010, 18, (1), 153-167 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration, NBER Working Papers (2006) View citations (10) (2006)
30. The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29, (4), 615-641 View citations (231)

2009

31. Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment
    Open Economies Review, 2009, 20, (2), 183-206 View citations (56)
32. THE SYMPOSIUM ON ‘CHINA'S IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY’
    Pacific Economic Review, 2009, 14, (3), 342-345 View citations (1)
33. Three current account balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" interpretation
    Japan and the World Economy, 2009, 21, (2), 202-212 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Three Current Account Balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation, NBER Working Papers (2005) View citations (4) (2005)
34. Understanding Global Liquidity in a Volatile World
    Review of International Economics, 2009, 17, (4), 651-654 View citations (3)

2008

35. Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2008, 13, (1), 2-13 View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment, NBER Working Papers (2006) View citations (17) (2006)
36. Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings*
    Review of International Economics, 2008, 16, (3), 479-498 View citations (111)
37. Non‐linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates
    Economic Notes, 2008, 37, (3), 219-239 View citations (15)
38. Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar
    International Finance, 2008, 11, (1), 49-73 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar, Scholarly Articles (2008) View citations (80) (2008)
39. Zašto će evro postati rival dolaru
    Panoeconomicus, 2008, 55, (3), 255-278

2007

40. Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26, (4), 546-569 View citations (304)
    See also Working Paper Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut", NBER Working Papers (2005) View citations (68) (2005)
41. PRICE‐BASED MEASUREMENT OF FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION: A CROSS‐COUNTRY STUDY OF INTEREST RATE PARITY
    Pacific Economic Review, 2007, 12, (4), 419-444 View citations (22)
42. THE FOG ENCIRCLING THE RENMINBI DEBATE
    The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2007, 52, (03), 403-418 View citations (1)
43. The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2007, 59, (1), 16-44 View citations (105)
    See also Working Paper The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration, Working Papers (2004) View citations (31) (2004)
44. The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26, (5), 762-785 View citations (144)
    See also Working Paper The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation, CESifo Working Paper Series (2007) View citations (155) (2007)

2006

45. A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation
    Open Economies Review, 2006, 17, (1), 115-143 View citations (145)
    See also Working Paper A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation, NBER Working Papers (2005) View citations (37) (2005)
46. Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G7 countries
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25, (2), 257-274 View citations (100)
    See also Working Paper Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G-7 countries, Working papers (2004) (2004)
47. Lessons from the First Financial Crises of the 21st Century
    International Finance, 2006, 9, (2), 281-294
48. The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25, (1), 7-21 View citations (160)
49. The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2006, 20, (1), 128-153 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants, Working Papers (2005) (2005)
50. What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions
    Journal of Development Economics, 2006, 81, (1), 163-192 View citations (1923)
    See also Working Paper What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions, NBER Working Papers (2005) View citations (112) (2005)

2005

51. Dimensions of financial integration in Greater China: money markets, banks and policy effects
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2005, 10, (2), 117-132 View citations (16)
52. Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
    Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2005, 141, (3), 460-485 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined, NBER Working Papers (2003) View citations (11) (2003)
53. Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2005, 24, (7), 1150-1175 View citations (542)
    See also Working Paper Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?, Working Papers (2005) View citations (523) (2005)
54. Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)
    Proceedings, 2005 View citations (11)

2004

55. A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86, (3), 705-722 View citations (291)
    See also Working Paper A DECOMPOSITION OF GLOBAL LINKAGES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS OVER TIME, Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2003) View citations (40) (2003)
56. How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2004, 9, (4), 289-306 View citations (100)
    See also Working Paper How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?, NBER Working Papers (2000) View citations (31) (2000)
57. Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again
    International Finance, 2004, 7, (3), 451-469 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit, Once Again, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series (2002) (2002)
58. Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity
    IMF Staff Papers, 2004, 51, (3), 409-430 View citations (258)

2003

59. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration
    China Economic Review, 2003, 14, (3), 281-303 View citations (34)
    See also Working Paper China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration, Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2003) View citations (26) (2003)
60. Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration
    Journal of International Economics, 2003, 59, (1), 47-76 View citations (664)
    See also Working Paper Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration, NBER Working Papers (2000) View citations (82) (2000)

2001

61. Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001, 20, (4), 439-471 View citations (353)
    See also Working Paper Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market, CESifo Working Paper Series (2000) View citations (26) (2000)
62. Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2001, 6, (2), 95-114 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates, NBER Working Papers (1999) View citations (21) (1999)

2000

63. Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?
    Emerging Markets Review, 2000, 1, (2), 101-126 View citations (73)
    Also in Emerging Markets Review, 2001, 2, (1), 87-87 (2001) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?, NBER Working Papers (1998) View citations (69) (1998)
64. The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates
    Review of International Economics, 2000, 8, (1), 20-43 View citations (79)
    See also Working Paper The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates, Working Papers (1998) View citations (12) (1998)
65. Three measures of East Asian currency evaluation
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 2000, 18, (2), 205-214 View citations (13)
66. Tracking the Euro's Progress
    International Finance, 2000, 3, (3), 357-373 View citations (7)

1999

67. International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information
    Proceedings, 1999, (Sep) View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information, NBER Working Papers (2000) View citations (41) (2000)
68. International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific before and after
    Journal of Asian Economics, 1999, 10, (3), 361-384 View citations (13)
69. Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999, 18, (4), 659-681 View citations (49)
    See also Working Paper Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises, NBER Working Papers (1999) View citations (50) (1999)
70. On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1999, 4, (2), 113-27 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies, NBER Working Papers (1998) View citations (9) (1998)

1998

71. Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan During the 1980's
    International Economic Journal, 1998, 12, (1), 53-74 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's, NBER Working Papers (1996) View citations (3) (1996)
72. Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1998, 17, (5), 813-830 View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models, NBER Working Papers (1997) View citations (6) (1997)
73. Long-run determinants of East Asian real exchange rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (apr10)

1997

74. Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration
    Monetary and Economic Studies, 1997, 15, (2), 81-103 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration, NBER Working Papers (1995) View citations (15) (1995)
75. Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1997, 15, (1), 68-73 View citations (62)
    See also Working Paper Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP, NBER Technical Working Papers (1996) View citations (9) (1996)
76. Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1997, 19, (1), 51-78 View citations (28)
77. Whither the Yen? Implications of an Intertemporal Model of the Dollar/Yen Rate
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1997, 11, (2), 228-246 View citations (9)

1996

78. Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis
    Oxford Economic Papers, 1996, 48, (1), 134-62 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis, Macroeconomics (1995) View citations (1) (1995)
79. How well is the United States competing? A comment on Papadakis
    Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1996, 15, (1), 68-81 View citations (3)

1995

80. Asia Pacific regionalism: Readings in international economic relations: Ross Garnaut and Peter Drysdale. HarperEducational in association with The Australia-Japan Research Centre, Canberra 1994, 433pp
    Journal of Asian Economics, 1995, 6, (4), 595-599
81. Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?
    Journal of International Economics, 1995, 38, (1-2), 161-178 View citations (293)
82. How sensitive are trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G5 countries
    Applied Economics Letters, 1995, 2, (1), 1-6 View citations (1)
83. Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1995, 14, (6), 801-821 View citations (91)
    See also Working Paper Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the US or Japan?, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series (1995) View citations (80) (1995)

1994

84. Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1994, 26, (4), 759-70 View citations (69)

1993

85. Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies
    Review of International Economics, 1993, 1, (2), 136-44 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies, NBER Working Papers (1991) View citations (10) (1991)

1992

86. Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992
    Proceedings, 1992, (Sep) View citations (3)
    Also in Proceedings, 1992, 17-47 (1992) View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Financial Links around the Pacific Rim: 1982-1992, Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers (1993) View citations (19) (1993)
87. Why Current Account Deficits Still Matter
    The World Economy, 1992, 15, (2), 221-230 View citations (1)

1991

88. Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world
    Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1991, 10, (4), 546-567 View citations (8)
89. Some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1991, 10, (2), 214-230 View citations (44)

Chapters

2014

1. Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia
   Chapter 8 in Asia and Global Production Networks, 2014, pp 249-286

2013

2. fiscal multipliers
   Palgrave Macmillan View citations (2)

2012

3. China, East Asia and global rebalancing
   Chapter 4 in European Integration in a Global Economy, 2012, pp 24-35
4. Imbalances, Overheating and the Prospects for Global Recovery
   Chapter 6 in Global Economic Crisis, 2012
5. The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma
   Chapter 6 in Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, 2012
   See also Working Paper The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma, eSocialSciences (2010) View citations (7) (2010)

2011

6. Comment on "The Fiscal Stimulus in 2009-11: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, 2011, pp 343-347

2010

7. China's Current Account and Exchange Rate
   A chapter in China's Growing Role in World Trade, 2010, pp 231-271 View citations (19)
   See also Working Paper China's Current Account and Exchange Rate, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2009) View citations (26) (2009)
8. Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 174-179

2009

9. East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development
   A chapter in Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, 2009, pp 117-150 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (24) (2007)
10. The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration
    Chapter 13 in Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, 2009 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2006) View citations (10) (2006)

2007

11. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?
    A chapter in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, 2007, pp 283-338 View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency?, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2006) View citations (14) (2006)

1997

12. Asia Pacific Capital Markets: Integration and Implications for Economic Activity
    A chapter in Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, 1997, pp 169-202 View citations (11)