Details about Menzie Chinn

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn
Phone:	608 262 7397
Postal address:	Department of Economics University of Wisconsin 7470 Social Science Building 1180 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706-1393
Workplace:	Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, (more information at EDIRC) Economics Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison, (more information at EDIRC) National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), (more information at EDIRC) Banque de France (Bank of France), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Menzie Chinn.

Last updated 2021-08-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pch129

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Working Papers

2022

1. Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

2021

2. Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

2019

3. A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

2018

4. Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy
   Post-Print, HAL View citations (4)
   Also in Post-Print, HAL (2017) View citations (1)
5. International Financial Integration in a Changing Policy Context – the End of an Era?
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
6. The New Fama Puzzle
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)

2017

7. Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (29)
   Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2017) View citations (20)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2019)
8. Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
   See also Journal Article in Open Economies Review (2020)

2016

9. Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers: The East Asian Crisis Plus 20
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2017)
10. Estimating Currency Misalignment Using the Penn Effect: It’s Not as Simple As It Looks
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in International Finance (2017)

2015

11. For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises
    Working papers, Banque de France View citations (33)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2015)
12. Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Trilemma in the New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (54)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2016)
13. Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Open Economies Review (2018)

2014

14. Current Account Imbalances and International Financial Integration
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
15. Explaining US employment growth after the Great Recession: the role of output-employment non-linearities
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2014)
16. The Rise of the “Redback” and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies
    ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute View citations (10)
17. The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo
    Also in BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (2014)
18. The Rise of the “Redback†and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies
    Finance Working Papers, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research
    Also in Macroeconomics Working Papers, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research (2014)

2013

19. Global spillovers and domestic monetary policy
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements View citations (34)
20. Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law
    Working Papers, CEPII research center View citations (5)
    Also in EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX (2013) View citations (5)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (6)
21. Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (1)

2012

22. Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (67)
    Also in BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (2012) View citations (63)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2012)
23. Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (28)

2011

24. A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (30)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Economic Papers (2014)

2010

25. Financing U.S. debt: Is there enough money in the world – and at what cost?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in International Finance (2011)
26. Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (18)
27. Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialisation andTrade Costs: The Implications for Aggreagate US Trade Flow Equations
    CAGE Online Working Paper Series, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) View citations (12)
28. Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    Also in ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank (2009) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (2011)
29. The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma
    Working Papers, eSocialSciences View citations (7)
    Also in ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute (2010) View citations (7)
    See also Chapter (2012)
30. The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (21)
    Also in Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary (2010) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Futures Markets (2014)
31. The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in International Finance (2015)

2009

32. A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (10)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (15)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (46)
33. Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (4)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (113)
34. China's Current Account and Exchange Rate
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (37)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2009) View citations (52)
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2009) View citations (25)
    See also Chapter (2010)

2008

35. Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
36. Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
37. The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (48)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government (2008) View citations (36)
38. Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard Kennedy School of Government View citations (71)
    See also Journal Article in International Finance (2008)

2007

39. Debt and Interest Rates: The U.S. and the Euro Area
    Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (7)
40. East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (24)
    See also Chapter (2009)
41. The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (128)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (135)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2007) View citations (133)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2007)

2006

42. Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Finance & Economics (2008)
43. ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2006) View citations (8)
    Working Papers, NET Institute (2006) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (2010)
44. The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (10)
    See also Chapter (2009)
45. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency?
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (5)
    Also in Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz (2005) View citations (54)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (90)
    Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government (2005) View citations (80)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2006) View citations (5)
    See also Chapter (2007)

2005

46. A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (37)
    See also Journal Article in Open Economies Review (2006)
47. Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (48)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2007)
48. Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (425)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2004) View citations (47)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (27)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (27)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (28)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (92)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2005)
49. Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
50. Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (102)
51. The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (8)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (8)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (7)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (2006)
52. The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (44)
53. Three Current Account Balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Japan and the World Economy (2009)
54. What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (51)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (100)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2005) View citations (51)
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (2005) View citations (54)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Development Economics (2006)

2004

55. Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G-7 countries
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2002) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2006)
56. Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (70)
    Also in Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (67)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (67)
57. The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration
    Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University View citations (29)
    Also in Center Discussion Papers, Yale University, Economic Growth Center (2004) View citations (16)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (16)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2004) View citations (29)
    Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems (2004) View citations (16)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (16)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (16)
    Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz (2004) View citations (16)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2004) View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Economic Papers (2007)

2003

58. A DECOMPOSITION OF GLOBAL LINKAGES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS OVER TIME
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (26)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (26)
    Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management (2003) View citations (40)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (28)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (37)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2004)
59. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (23)
    Also in Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2003) View citations (26)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (23)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2003) View citations (25)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in China Economic Review (2003)
60. Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) (2005)
61. The Euro Area and World Interest Rates
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (19)
    Also in Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (19)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (19)
62. What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz View citations (3)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2003) View citations (6)
    Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (3)
    Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz (2003) View citations (4)

2002

63. Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (229)
64. Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit, Once Again
    Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz
    See also Journal Article in International Finance (2004)
65. Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (54)
66. The Compatability of Capital COntrols and Financial Development: A Selective Survey and Empirical Evidence
    Asia Pacific Economic Papers, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (1)

2000

67. Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2001)
68. Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (33)
69. How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (31)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (1999) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Finance & Economics (2004)
70. Interest parity at short and long horizons
    SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes View citations (10)
71. International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article in Proceedings (1999)
72. Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (84)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2000) View citations (69)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2003)
73. Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons
    Discussion Paper Series, Hamburg Institute of International Economics View citations (10)
    Also in HWWA Discussion Papers, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) (2000) View citations (11)
74. The empirical determinants of the Euro: Short and long run perspectives
    SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes View citations (12)

1999

75. Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
76. Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (48)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (1999)
77. Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (58)
78. Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Finance & Economics (2001)
79. Measuring Misalignment: Purchasing Power Parity and East Asian Currencies in the 1990s
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (6)
80. Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)

1998

81. Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (67)
    See also Journal Article in Emerging Markets Review (2000)
82. Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (114)
83. On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf- (1997) View citations (3)
    Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1997) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Finance & Economics (1999)
84. The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (53)
    Also in Working Papers, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences (1998) View citations (40)
85. The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates
    Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) View citations (12)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations (21)
    Working Papers, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf- (1997) View citations (11)
    Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1997) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (2000)

1997

86. Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    Also in International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany (1995) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (1998)
87. Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (19)
88. Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (29)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations (104)
89. Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (51)

1996

90. Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    Also in International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany (1995)
    See also Journal Article in International Economic Journal (1998)
91. Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
    Also in Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany (1995) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1997)

1995

92. Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
93. Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Economic Papers (1996)
94. Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in Monetary and Economic Studies (1997)
95. How sensitive are estimated trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G-5 countries
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
96. More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests
    International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
97. National, regional and international capital markets: Measurement and implications for domestic financial fragility
    International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
98. The relative influence of US and Japan on real interest rates around the Pacific Rim
    International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
99. Whither the Yen? Implications of an intertemporal model of the Yen/Dollar rate
    International Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
100. Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the US or Japan?
     Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (78)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (1995)

1993

101. Financial Links around the Pacific Rim: 1982-1992
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics View citations (1)
     Also in Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1993) View citations (2)
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (1993) View citations (6)
     See also Journal Article in Proceedings (1992)
102. Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics View citations (4)
     Also in Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (1993) View citations (22)
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1991) View citations (10)

1992

103. Financial and Currency Integration in the European Monetary System: The Statistical Record
     Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics View citations (15)
     Also in Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (1992) View citations (24)

1991

104. Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
     See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (1993)
105. The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule in an Open Economy
     Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley View citations (7)

Journal Articles

2020

1. Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies
   Open Economies Review, 2020, 31, (3), 529-563 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper (2017)

2019

2. Exchange rate prediction redux: New models, new data, new currencies
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 95, (C), 332-362 View citations (30)
   See also Working Paper (2017)
3. International spillovers of monetary policy through global banks: introduction to the special issue
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 91, (C), 101-104

2018

4. Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound
   Open Economies Review, 2018, 29, (1), 1-30 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper (2015)

2017

5. Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, 74, (C), 258-282 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper (2016)
6. Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks
   International Finance, 2017, 20, (3), 222-242 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper (2016)

2016

7. China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications
   Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2016, 152, (1), 43-67 View citations (3)
8. Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016, 68, (C), 298-330 View citations (101)
   See also Working Paper (2015)

2015

9. Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies
   Open Economies Review, 2015, 26, (1), 155-174 View citations (6)
10. For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 52, (C), 127-145 View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
11. The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time
    International Finance, 2015, 18, (2), 129-156 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

2014

12. A forensic analysis of global imbalances
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2014, 66, (2), 465-490 View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
13. Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014, 42, (C), 118-129 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
14. The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
    Journal of Futures Markets, 2014, 34, (7), 607-636 View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

2013

15. A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95, (1), 168-184 View citations (87)
16. The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing
    Review of International Economics, 2013, 21, (3), 447-458 View citations (98)

2012

17. Are Chinese trade flows different?
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012, 31, (8), 2127-2146 View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
18. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2012, 8, (1), 343 - 347

2011

19. Financing US Debt: Is There Enough Money in the World – and at What Cost?
    International Finance, 2011, 14, (3), 373-413 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
20. Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011, 43, (8), 1599-1624 View citations (3)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011, 43, (8), 1599-1624 (2011) View citations (47)
21. Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2011, 25, (3), 290-320 View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

2010

22. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 174 - 179
23. ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration
    Review of International Economics, 2010, 18, (1), 153-167 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
24. The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29, (4), 615-641 View citations (184)

2009

25. Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment
    Open Economies Review, 2009, 20, (2), 183-206 View citations (53)
26. THE SYMPOSIUM ON ‘CHINA'S IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY’
    Pacific Economic Review, 2009, 14, (3), 342-345 View citations (1)
27. Three current account balances: A "Semi-Structuralist" interpretation
    Japan and the World Economy, 2009, 21, (2), 202-212 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
28. Understanding Global Liquidity in a Volatile World
    Review of International Economics, 2009, 17, (4), 651-654 View citations (3)

2008

29. Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2008, 13, (1), 2-13 View citations (52)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
30. Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings*
    Review of International Economics, 2008, 16, (3), 479-498 View citations (101)
31. Non‐linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates
    Economic Notes, 2008, 37, (3), 219-239 View citations (15)
32. Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar
    International Finance, 2008, 11, (1), 49-73 View citations (73)
    Also in Panoeconomicus, 2008, 55, (3), 255-278 (2008) View citations (73)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2007

33. Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26, (4), 546-569 View citations (233)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
34. PRICE‐BASED MEASUREMENT OF FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION: A CROSS‐COUNTRY STUDY OF INTEREST RATE PARITY
    Pacific Economic Review, 2007, 12, (4), 419-444 View citations (15)
35. THE FOG ENCIRCLING THE RENMINBI DEBATE
    The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2007, 52, (03), 403-418 View citations (1)
36. The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2007, 59, (1), 16-44 View citations (80)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
37. The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26, (5), 762-785 View citations (133)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2006

38. A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation
    Open Economies Review, 2006, 17, (1), 115-143 View citations (113)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
39. Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G7 countries
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25, (2), 257-274 View citations (92)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
40. Lessons from the First Financial Crises of the 21st Century
    International Finance, 2006, 9, (2), 281-294
41. The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25, (1), 7-21 View citations (144)
42. The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2006, 20, (1), 128-153 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
43. What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions
    Journal of Development Economics, 2006, 81, (1), 163-192 View citations (1390)
    See also Working Paper (2005)

2005

44. Dimensions of financial integration in Greater China: money markets, banks and policy effects
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2005, 10, (2), 117-132 View citations (16)
45. Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
    Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2005, 141, (3), 460-485 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
46. Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2005, 24, (7), 1150-1175 View citations (488)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
47. Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)
    Proceedings, 2005 View citations (10)

2004

48. A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86, (3), 705-722 View citations (252)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
49. How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2004, 9, (4), 289-306 View citations (91)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
50. Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again
    International Finance, 2004, 7, (3), 451-469 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper (2002)
51. Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity
    IMF Staff Papers, 2004, 51, (3), 409-430 View citations (232)

2003

52. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration
    China Economic Review, 2003, 14, (3), 281-303 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
53. Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration
    Journal of International Economics, 2003, 59, (1), 47-76 View citations (578)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

54. Corrigendum to ''Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?'': [Emerging Markets Review 1 (2000) 101-126]
    Emerging Markets Review, 2001, 2, (1), 87-87
55. Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001, 20, (4), 439-471 View citations (316)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
56. Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2001, 6, (2), 95-114 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

2000

57. Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?
    Emerging Markets Review, 2000, 1, (2), 101-126 View citations (72)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
58. The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates
    Review of International Economics, 2000, 8, (1), 20-43 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
59. Three measures of East Asian currency evaluation
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 2000, 18, (2), 205-214 View citations (12)
60. Tracking the Euro's Progress
    International Finance, 2000, 3, (3), 357-373 View citations (7)

1999

61. International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information
    Proceedings, 1999, (Sep) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
62. International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific before and after
    Journal of Asian Economics, 1999, 10, (3), 361-384 View citations (12)
63. Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999, 18, (4), 659-681 View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
64. On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1999, 4, (2), 113-27 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (1998)

1998

65. Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan During the 1980's
    International Economic Journal, 1998, 12, (1), 53-74 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (1996)
66. Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1998, 17, (5), 813-830 View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
67. Long-run determinants of East Asian real exchange rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998, (apr10)

1997

68. Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration
    Monetary and Economic Studies, 1997, 15, (2), 81-103 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
69. Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1997, 15, (1), 68-73 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper (1996)
70. Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1997, 19, (1), 51-78 View citations (25)
71. Whither the Yen? Implications of an Intertemporal Model of the Dollar/Yen Rate
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1997, 11, (2), 228-246 View citations (9)

1996

72. Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis
    Oxford Economic Papers, 1996, 48, (1), 134-62 View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
73. How well is the United States competing? A comment on Papadakis
    Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1996, 15, (1), 68-81 View citations (2)

1995

74. Asia Pacific regionalism: Readings in international economic relations: Ross Garnaut and Peter Drysdale. HarperEducational in association with The Australia-Japan Research Centre, Canberra 1994, 433pp
    Journal of Asian Economics, 1995, 6, (4), 595-599
75. Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?
    Journal of International Economics, 1995, 38, (1-2), 161-178 View citations (279)
76. How sensitive are trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G5 countries
    Applied Economics Letters, 1995, 2, (1), 1-6 View citations (1)
77. Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1995, 14, (6), 801-821 View citations (87)
    See also Working Paper (1995)

1994

78. Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1994, 26, (4), 759-70 View citations (64)

1993

79. Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies
    Review of International Economics, 1993, 1, (2), 136-44 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper (1991)

1992

80. Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992
    Proceedings, 1992, (Sep) View citations (3)
    Also in Proceedings, 1992, 17-47 (1992) View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
81. Why Current Account Deficits Still Matter
    The World Economy, 1992, 15, (2), 221-230 View citations (1)

1991

82. Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world
    Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1991, 10, (4), 546-567 View citations (5)
83. Some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1991, 10, (2), 214-230 View citations (42)

Chapters

2014

1. Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia
   Chapter 8 in Asia and Global Production Networks, 2014, pp 249-286

2013

2. fiscal multipliers
   Palgrave Macmillan View citations (2)

2012

3. China, East Asia and global rebalancing
   Chapter 4 in European Integration in a Global Economy, 2012, pp 24-35
4. Imbalances, Overheating and the Prospects for Global Recovery
   Chapter 6 in Global Economic Crisis, 2012
5. The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma
   Chapter 6 in Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, 2012
   See also Working Paper (2010)

2011

6. Comment on "The Fiscal Stimulus in 2009-11: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, 2011, pp 343-347

2010

7. China's Current Account and Exchange Rate
   A chapter in China's Growing Role in World Trade, 2010, pp 231-271 View citations (19)
   See also Working Paper (2009)
8. Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 174-179

2009

9. East Asia and Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, and Financial Development
   A chapter in Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, 2009, pp 117-150 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2007)
10. The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration
    Chapter 13 in Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, 2009 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

11. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?
    A chapter in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, 2007, pp 283-338 View citations (69)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

1997

12. Asia Pacific Capital Markets: Integration and Implications for Economic Activity
    A chapter in Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, 1997, pp 169-202 View citations (11)