 El ciclo económico en Uruguay - Un modelo de Switching RegimesAlejandro R. Pena Sanchez No 111, Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings from Econometric Society Abstract: This paper presents an empirical characterization of Uruguayan’s Business Cycle applying the Switching Regime methodology; three scenarios were considered: recession, moderate growth and boom. The relation between regional and Uruguayan’s business cycle is analyzed through the same model; instead, in order to study the relation between the international and Uruguayan’ business cycle, a model proposed by Kim and Nelson (1999) based on the Hamilton’s original model (1989) is used to modelling the U.S. real GNP. The conditional probabilities of being in the three states at each point of the sample reproduce in a reasonable way the evolution of the economic activity in the period ; these probabilities have similar evolutions in Argentina and Uruguay. Likewise, only is able to observe a boom state in Uruguay if the U.S economy were in the fast growth state; also, the international recessions have a strong influence in the regional and local business cycle. Finally, some considerations are made related to the level of the GNP on the long run and the changes in the permanent income if the consumers knew with certainty that a specific regime had started Keywords: Business Cycles; Regime Switching. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecm:latm04:111 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings from Econometric Society Contact information at EDIRC. |
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