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Long-term unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK stocks and flows

Carl Singleton ()

ESE Discussion Papers from Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh

Abstract: Long-term unemployment more than doubled during the UK’s Great Recession. Only a small fraction of this persistent increase can be explained by the changing composition of the unemployment pool. Aggregate exit rates from unemployment exhibit negative duration dependence. A stocks-flows decomposition, which allows for this fact in a limited way, indicates the importance of participation flows, especially from unemployment to inactivity, in accounting for long-term unemployment’s recessionary rise. How changes in transition rates contributed to this rise suggests a general shift in the labour force attachment of the long-term unemployed, which cannot be accounted for by observable characteristics.

Keywords: Long-term unemployment; Worker flows; Labour force participation; Great Recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2016-02
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Journal Article: Long‐Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK Stocks and Flows (2018) Downloads
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