 Long-term unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK stocks and flowsEdinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series from Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh Abstract: Long-term unemployment more than doubled during the UK's Great Recession. Only a small fraction of this persistent increase can be explained by the changing composition of the unemployment pool. Aggregate exit rates from unemployment exhibit negative duration dependence. A stocks-flows decomposition, which allows for this fact in a limited way, indicates the importance of participation flows, especially from unemployment to inactivity, in accounting for long-term unemployment’s recessionary rise. How changes in transition rates contributed to this rise suggests a general shift in the labour force attachment of the long-term unemployed, which cannot be accounted for by observable characteristics. Keywords: Long-term unemployment; Worker flows; Labour force participation; Great Recession (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:esedps:273 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series from Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh 31 Buccleuch Place, EH8 9JT, Edinburgh. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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