A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

Christa Jensen, Donald Lacombe and Stuart McIntyre
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Christa D. Court

No 2012-20, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)

Abstract: The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Keywords: United Kingdom General Election; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm
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Working Paper: A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:sirdps:323

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