A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election

Christa Jensen (), Donald Lacombe () and Stuart McIntyre
Additional contact information
Christa Jensen: Regional Research Institute, Department of Economics, West Virginia University
Donald Lacombe: Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Christa D. Court

No 1201, Working Papers from University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Keywords: United Kingdom General Election; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2012-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-geo and nep-ure
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Working Paper: A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:str:wpaper:1201

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