Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries

d'Artis Kancs

EERI Research Paper Series from Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels

Abstract: In this paper we develop an analytically solvable and structurally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE’s integration with the EU. The main innovation of our approach is that it endogenises both explanatory variables and the migration rate. The underlying structural parameters are estimated econometrically using a migration equation, which is derived entirely from the theoretical NEG model. Our simulations show that even relatively moderate changes in some of the explanatory variables (such as transport costs) can actuate unpredictable changes (both in sign and magnitude) in other explanatory variables (such as wages). Keeping these explanatory variables fixed, as in reduced-form models, would produce biased results. Our empirical findings advocate that there is enough evidence to predict a selective migration among the three Baltic States. However, labour mobility in the Baltic countries is sufficiently low to make the swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern very unlikely at this geographical level.

Keywords: Migration; economic geography; European regions; integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F12 L11 R12 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2005-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2005_01.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2005_01

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in EERI Research Paper Series from Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Julia van Hove ().