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Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries

d'Artis Kancs

Migration Letters, 2005, vol. 2, issue 1, 32-63

Abstract: In this paper I develop an analytically solvable and structur-ally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE's integration with the EU. The main innovation of my ap-proach is that it endogenises both, explanatory variables and the migration rate. Model's parameters are estimated econometrically using a structural equation, which is de-rived entirely from the theoretical NEG model. My empirical findings advocate that there is enough evidence to predict a selective migration among the three Baltic States. However, labour mobility in the Baltic countries is sufficiently low to make the swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern very unlikely at this geographical level.

Keywords: Migration; Economic Geography; European regions; Agglomeration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Migration Letters is currently edited by Prof Ibrahim Sirkeci, Prof Dr Jeffrey H. Cohen and Prof Elli Heikkila

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