CAMA Working Papers

From Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
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2026-68: UIP Holds Conditional on Monetary Policy Shocks

Naveed Javed and Nicolas Groshenny

2026-67: Real GDP Growth Predictability and Implications for Estimating Australia's Output Gap

Gilliane De Gorostiza-Roudnitski and Benjamin Wong

2026-66: Searching for Flexibility: Labour and Housing Market Interactions in the UK

Tatiana Kirsanova, Oyvind Masst and Charles Nolan

2026-65: Non-Competes: A Case of Missing Wages in Australia

Omer Majeed, Sarah Davies, Nabeeh Zakariyya, Amee McMillan and Yun Jia

2026-64: Unpacking Global Inflation

Yun Young Gwak, James Morley and Benjamin Wong

2026-63: The Green and Equitable Challenge of Fiscal Consolidation

Nicoletta D'Alterio, Maria Ferrara and Alessia Paccagnini

2026-62: Eluding the Predators: The Goodwin Cycle with Workforce Precarization in Japan

Enrico Caricchio and Corrado Di Guilmi

2026-61: US Monetary Spillovers, Foreign Exchange, and Gold Reserves at Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation

Joshua Aizenman, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Salah Uddin and Naoki Yago

2026-60: Welfare Effects of Preferential Trade Under Heterogeneity and Imperfections: Theory and Evidence

Dibyendu Maiti, Amrita Saha and Sambit Bhattacharyya

2026-59: The Great Aid Transition: How Global Crisis Reshaped Aid Effectiveness in Africa

Sambit Bhattacharyya, Chirantan Chatterjee and Stephen Lartey

2026-58: Demonetisation, Crime Perception and Welfare: Theory and Evidence from Kenya

Jiao Wang, Sambit Bhattacharyya, Stephen Lartey and Chirantan Chatterjee

2026-57: Seasonality in Univariate Unobserved Component Models

Denise R. Osborn, Jing Tian and Jan Jacobs

2026-56: Climate Shocks in Global Oil Markets: Time-Varying ENSO Transmission to WTI Spot and Futures Prices

Marco Gallegati, William Ginn, Jamel Saadaoui, Solomos Solomou and Kun Tian

2026-55: Energy and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Alice Albonico, Guido Ascari, Qazi Haque, Kostas Mavromatis and Andra Smadu

2026-54: Financial Market Reactions to the Novelty of Information in FOMC Minutes

Niklas Humann, Dimitrios Kanelis, Lars H. Kranzmann and Pierre L. Siklos

2026-53: Introducing Forward-Looking Intertemporal Optimization in an Agent-Based Model

Corrado Di Guilmi and Takashi Kamihigashi

2026-52: Households' Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education

Jessica Piccolo, Alessia Russo, Eleonora Granziera and Efrem Castelnuovo

2026-51: A Simple Prudential-Effort Foundation for the Financial Trilemma

Charles Nolan

2026-50: Equilibrium Indeterminacy When Only Some Firms Are Scalable

Oscar Pavlov and Mark Weder

2026-49: Productivity Dynamics of Artificial Intelligence Adoption: An Analysis of the Machinery Industry

Masayuki Morikawa

2026-48: Structure and Resolution in Banking: Are They Substitutes?

Alfred Duncan and Charles Nolan

2026-47: Haircut, Interest Rate, and Collateral Quality in the Tri-Party Repo Market: Evidence and Theory

Sangyup Choi, Inkee Jang, Kee-Youn Kang and Hyunpyung Kim

2026-46: Fertility in an Unequal, Innovative World

Monisankar Bishnu and Chakshu Jain

2026-45: Bond Yield Responses to Macro News: The Role of Macro Forecast Disagreement and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Peter Hordahl, Burcin Kisacikoglu and Fan Dora Xia

2026-44: Population Growth and Poverty: How Institutions Matter

Omer Majeed

2026-43: US Monetary Policy, Exchange Rates, and Delayed Portfolio Adjustments

Sangyup Choi, Jongho Park and Kwangyong Park

2026-42: The Balance Sheet Channel of Fiscal Policy: Sovereign Exposure and Credit to Firms in the European Periphery

Alberto Montagnoli, Miroslava Quiroga-Trevino and Christoph Thoenissen

2026-41: Financing Nature:Investment Funds and Biodiversity Risks

Daniel te Kaat and Alexander Raabe

2026-40: Adaptive Bayesian Shrinkage of High-Dimensional Panel VARs

Zhiruo Zhang, Firmin Doko Tchatoka and Qazi Haque

2026-39: Forecasting Oil Prices Across the Distribution: A Quantile VAR Approach

Hilde Bjørnland, Nicolas Hardy and Dimitris Korobilis

2026-38: The Role of Initial States in Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest

Jaqueson Galimberti

2026-37: State Dependence of Monetary Policy During Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

2026-36: When Policy Uncertainty Crosses Borders: Evidence from U.S. Export Dynamics

Ufuk Can

2026-35: Foreign Capital Inflows and Monetary Sterilization in Papua New Guinea

Thomas Wangi

2026-34: On the Complementarity of Public and Private Pensions: Equity, Efficiency, and Optimal Design

George Kudrna and Chung Tran

2026-33: International Transmission of Monetary Shocks: Firm Level Evidence

Kerim Arin, Ozan Eksi, Neslihan Kaya Eksi and Moo-Sung Kim

2026-32: Sectoral Heterogeneity in the International Transmission of Monetary Policy

Ozan Eksi, Kerim Arin, Neslihan Kaya Eksi and Moo-Sung Kim

2026-31: Imperfect Information, Composition of Demand Shocks, and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve

Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti

2026-30: Price Effects of US-China Trade Wars

Thuy Hang Duong and Weifeng Larry Liu

2026-29: Narratives and the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

Jonathan Benchimol and Sathya Mellina

2026-28: Micro-to-Macro Uncertainty

Girish Bahal, Damian Lenzo and Jia-Wei Loh

2026-27: Fiscal Policy, Asset Prices, and Economic Sentiment

Ufuk Can

2026-26: GDP-Flash Estimates: An International Assessment

Philipp Wegmuller, Jan Jacobs and Marc Burri

2026-25: The Monetary Policy Statement Database: An LLM Application to Global Financial Conditions

Cory Baird, Jonathan Benchimol, Wook Sohn, Vira Vyshnevska and Iegor Vyshnevskyi

2026-24: The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks

Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos and Francesco Zanetti

2026-23: Macroeconomic Consequences of Sustained Warming: A Bias-Corrected Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach

Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi and Jui-Chung Yang

2026-22: How Geopolitics Influence Chinese Firms' Exports: Firm-Level Evidence of "Friendtrading" Under Extreme Events

Jamel Saadaoui, Vanessa Strauss-Kahn and Jerome Creel

2026-21: Disagreement over the Nature of Macroeconomic Shocks

James Morley, Jing Tian and Ben Zhe Wang

2026-20: The Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impacts of Climate Adaptation Policy in Bangladesh

Mohammad Mahabub Alam, Weifeng Larry Liu and Warwick McKibbin

2026-19: Fiscal Expansion and Households' Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem and Lena Tonzer