CAMA Working Papers

From Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
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2026-46: Fertility in an Unequal, Innovative World

Monisankar Bishnu and Chakshu Jain

2026-45: Bond Yield Responses to Macro News: The Role of Macro Forecast Disagreement and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Peter Hordahl, Burcin Kisacikoglu and Fan Dora Xia

2026-44: Population Growth and Poverty: How Institutions Matter

Omer Majeed

2026-43: US Monetary Policy, Exchange Rates, and Delayed Portfolio Adjustments

Sangyup Choi, Jongho Park and Kwangyong Park

2026-42: The Balance Sheet Channel of Fiscal Policy: Sovereign Exposure and Credit to Firms in the European Periphery

Alberto Montagnoli, Miroslava Quiroga-Trevino and Christoph Thoenissen

2026-41: Financing Nature:Investment Funds and Biodiversity Risks

Daniel te Kaat and Alexander Raabe

2026-40: Adaptive Bayesian Shrinkage of High-Dimensional Panel VARs

Zhiruo Zhang, Firmin Doko Tchatoka and Qazi Haque

2026-39: Forecasting Oil Prices Across the Distribution: A Quantile VAR Approach

Hilde Bjørnland, Nicolas Hardy and Dimitris Korobilis

2026-38: The Role of Initial States in Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest

Jaqueson Galimberti

2026-37: State Dependence of Monetary Policy During Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

2026-36: When Policy Uncertainty Crosses Borders: Evidence from U.S. Export Dynamics

Ufuk Can

2026-35: Foreign Capital Inflows and Monetary Sterilization in Papua New Guinea

Thomas Wangi

2026-34: On the Complementarity of Public and Private Pensions: Equity, Efficiency, and Optimal Design

George Kudrna and Chung Tran

2026-33: International Transmission of Monetary Shocks: Firm Level Evidence

K. Peren Arin, Ozan Eksi, Neslihan Kaya Eksi and Moo-Sung Kim

2026-32: Sectoral Heterogeneity in the International Transmission of Monetary Policy

Ozan Eksi, K. Peren Arin, Neslihan Kaya Eksi and Moo-Sung Kim

2026-31: Imperfect Information, Composition of Demand Shocks, and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve

Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti

2026-30: Price Effects of US-China Trade Wars

Thuy Hang Duong and Weifeng Larry Liu

2026-29: Narratives and the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

Jonathan Benchimol and Sathya Mellina

2026-28: Micro-to-Macro Uncertainty

Girish Bahal, Damian Lenzo and Jia-Wei Loh

2026-27: Fiscal Policy, Asset Prices, and Economic Sentiment

Ufuk Can

2026-26: GDP-Flash Estimates: An International Assessment

Philipp Wegmuller, Jan Jacobs and Marc Burri

2026-25: The Monetary Policy Statement Database: An LLM Application to Global Financial Conditions

Cory Baird, Jonathan Benchimol, Wook Sohn, Vira Vyshnevska and Iegor Vyshnevskyi

2026-24: The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks

Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos and Francesco Zanetti

2026-23: Macroeconomic Consequences of Sustained Warming: A Bias-Corrected Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach

Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi and Jui-Chung Yang

2026-22: How Geopolitics Influence Chinese Firms' Exports: Firm-Level Evidence of "Friendtrading" Under Extreme Events

Jamel Saadaoui, Vanessa Strauss-Kahn and Jerome Creel

2026-21: Disagreement over the Nature of Macroeconomic Shocks

James Morley, Jing Tian and Ben Zhe Wang

2026-20: The Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impacts of Climate Adaptation Policy in Bangladesh

Mohammad Mahabub Alam, Weifeng Larry Liu and Warwick McKibbin

2026-19: Fiscal Expansion and Households' Income Inequality Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Melina Ludolph, Giang Nghiem and Lena Tonzer

2026-18: Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Labor Market Dynamics

Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti

2026-17: Coupling Maritime Electrification with Renewable Power Systems: The Potential of Battery Vessels

Anthony Wiskich

2026-16: Macroeconomic Modelling of Infectious Diseases:Conceptual Frameworks

Weifeng Larry Liu, Richard T. Gray, Guy B. Marks, James M. Trauer and Virginia Wiseman

2026-15: Where Geopolitical Risk Binds: Stockpiling and AI as Complementary Strategies for Mitigating Supply Chain Risk in Critical Minerals

Joaquin Vespignani, Russell Smyth, Jamel Saadaoui and Yitian Wang

2026-14: National Hydrogen Strategies: Policy Impacts and Adoption Drivers

Ryan Singleton, Qazi Haque and Firmin Doko Tchatoka

2026-13: Regularized Random Subspace Regressions

Yilin Xiao and Jamie L. Cross

2026-12: Value Function Iteration Without the Curse of Dimensionality

Richard Dennis

2026-11: The Adaptation Imperative: Climate Change and Sovereign Credit Risk

Matt Burke, Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

2026-10: Monitoring Macroeconomic Prospects with a Meta VAR-E Dashboard

Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields

2026-09: Perceived Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Professional Forecasters in Australia

Jonathan Hambur and Qazi Haque

2026-08: Geopolitical Turning Points and Macroeconomic Volatility: A Bilateral Identification Strategy

Jamel Saadaoui

2026-07: Shifts in Australian Price-Setting Behaviour Around Large Shocks

Matthew Fink and Jonathan Hambur

2026-06: Fiscal Policies Are Not All Alike: Composition Effects, Regime Switching and Uncertainty

Jerome Creel, Serena Ionta and Guido Traficante

2026-05: Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy

Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose

2026-04: Saving by Shopping? The Limits of Substitution in Household Production

Miyu Iwasaki and Kozo Ueda

2026-03: Liquidity Trap and Optimal Monetary Policy: Evaluations for U.S. Monetary Policy from 2020 to 2023

Kohei Hasui, Tomohiro Sugo and Yuki Teranishi

2026-02: Behavioral Expectations Under Indeterminacy: An Empirical Evaluation

Yasuo Hirose and Donghoon Yoo

2026-01: Time-Varying Human Capital and Energy Consumption for a Panel of OECD Countries in the Long-Run

Kris Ivanovski, Russell Smyth and Xibin Zhang

2025-72: Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring

Jamel Saadaoui, Russell Smyth, Joaquin Vespignani and Yitian Wang

2025-71: Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies

Amat Adarov, Ayhan Kose and Dana Vorisek

2025-70: Recycling or Stockpiling? Country-Specific Strategies for Securing EV Battery Critical Minerals

Yitian Wang, Joaquin Vespignani and Russell Smyth

2025-69: The Green Transition and Households' Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Tjantana Barro, Michal Marenčák and Giang Nghiem